Sad: USMNT Berhalter References Expected Goals

You have to be an analytical expert to recognize that Expected Goals has ABSOLUTELY NO CORRELATION to earning points, either by draw or through winning. Statistically, Expected Goals correlation to earning points is: .3012 - translated for the common person that means the correlation is ZERO. On the other hand - pure possession with purpose... Continue Reading →

USMNT – NEVER really had the Calm

Good initial summary by Gregg Berhalter after the match. In my words it'd be: "US Men's National Team NEVER controlled the game. This has been the issue, (MY ISSUE) with the US Men's National Team FOREVER. You simply can't win games at the very highest level WITHOUT CONTROLLING the game, either WITH or WITHOUT the... Continue Reading →

Expected Goals – The single greatest statistical hoax in soccer analytics

Look, expected goals is a predictive model that predicts goals based upon previous goals scored. NO predictive model uses the outcome generated to predict the outcome expected - a predictive model MUST use the underlying statistics generated prior to the outcome. So when you see articles written by uneducated pundits (like those working for MLS... Continue Reading →


Portland Timbers 2, Seattle Sounders 6 At no point as an analyst or writer covering the Portland Timbers have I EVER seen such a complete dismantling of a team. Regardless of the two goals scored by Portland, they were organizationally, strategically, and tactically hammered... Organizationally - Portland is a direct team - note that specific... Continue Reading →

Real Soccer Analytics… not for the faint of heart

Probably the biggest leader in soccer analytics (Prozone Sports) have released two products in the last year, or so, that should begin to change the landscape of soccer statistics. I applaud their actions but I'm still not convinced they scratch the right itch, or at least my question; what are the best statistics available to better... Continue Reading →

Packing in Portland, PTFC vs SKC Pre-Match Thoughts for your Consideration

It's been some time since I put pen to paper talking Timbers; I want to offer my thanks to the guys on the Outer Roses Podcast for re-energizing my passion in watching and offering thoughts about Portland. I said this back in 2012 and it's worth repeating, the single greatest soccer stadium for atmosphere, in... Continue Reading →

Gregg Berhalter to lead #USMNT?

After an exhausting period of time (almost un-ending) I'm pretty sure US Soccer will announce Gregg Berhalter as our next US Men's National Team Coach. Is this a good decision? Background: Earnie Stewart set the tone in Philadelphia by standardizing a system of play and directing the development of players (across the entire organization) to... Continue Reading →

Moneyball 3 Soccer Statistics – Major League Soccer (2014 to 2016 in Review)

Each year for the last two years I've offered some thoughts on current soccer statistics, their strengths and weaknesses, how current efforts are taking shape, and how English Premier League team statistics (in a limited measurement period) offer that one size / type of statistic doesn't show equally. Here's a link to those previous articles in case you missed... Continue Reading →

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