Alvas Powell

Defense First? Timbers to Ride the Rapids?

Portland Timbers travel to Colorado for the first time this year and the challenge for both teams is finding the right balance between attacking and defending.

In their last league home game the Timbers struggled in the first half – not unlike their US Open Cup match as well.

If not for an untimely hand-ball by David Horst and a really terrible PK call against the Dynamo goal keeper it’s likely the Timbers come away with a single point… to be sure they were fortunate as the two goals against in the first half were pretty much to standard given their entire defensive unit this year.

So when getting ready for Colorado it’s quite hard to figure who starts and who doesn’t.  

Does Taylor Peay start at right back?

He probably should given his higher passing accuracy and what appears to be better, heads-up, defensive positioning but in all likelihood Caleb Porter goes with Alvis Powell.

If you’re a Rapids supporter that’s probably a good thing – nearly 60% of all Dynamo attacking pressure came down Powell’s wing.  And when looking at this diagram below we see Colorado is balanced in penetration (touches) but weighs more towards the left side when taking (shots).

CRFC Team Stats

In my pre-match scouting report on Houston they weren’t balanced in penetration – nearly 40% of their penetration was down the right side – yet against Portland – Wade Barrett had his team push left… big time!  It’s likely Colorado will do the same.  MLS teams are pretty good at pressing the weak points an opponent has in defending as those players are more likely to make mistakes.

So if you’re a Timbers supporter hopefully the midfielders will add support for Powell.  I figure Diego Chara and Ben Zemanski in a double pivot as the first recourse should be for Portland to get at least one point.

In thinking about the left fullback.

I’m hopeful Zarek Valentin gets the call but Porter has gone with Jermaine Taylor before.  It was Taylor and Powell who paired up during that two-goal outburst by Houston last weekend…  And given the stingy defense of Colorado it’d be a nightmare for Portland to go a goal down in the first ten minutes.

However viewed the fullbacks do not man the wings alone – it’s likely both Chara and Zemanski start in a double pivot as Porter is going to want to give his team a chance to get at least one point.

And with the double pivot that doesn’t mean Darlington Nagbe, Diego Valeri, and Lucas Melano won’t have defensive responsibilities – they will and Melano cannot afford to ball-watch this game.

Here’s the same diagram offering up information on the Timbers attack:

PTFC Team Stats

Probably a tad more balanced in attacking touches than Colorado – but the same lean towards taking shots from the left sides appears for Portland as well.

Of note – while Portland has played somewhat more direct this year there average number of long passes (per game) is about 10-15 fewer than Colorado – from a tactical viewpoint that probably translates to slightly more MF play between Valeri, Nagbe, (Chara and Zemanski).

It doesn’t mean both teams won’t try to stretch the defensive back-four with long balls – but given Powell’s tendency to push higher up the pitch Nat Borchers might be really busy this game.

A key indicator on the attacking scheme will be to watch how deep and how quickly the fullbacks for Portland push forward – the less tendency to push forward the more likely Porter is thinking defense first.

So how do the fullbacks work in Colorado?  I asked Chris Brown, to share his thoughts with me on Friday:

Colorado’s fullbacks have been key in shutting down attacking threats, getting narrow when they need to crowd the box but also making smart decisions to step out when they have adequate cover from midfielders Michael Azira and Sam Cronin.

Marc Burch is the first choice left back for the Rapids and Mekeil Williams usually plays at right back. When the cover is there they step out and close down attackers, preventing crosses from coming into the box but also positioning themselves to try and limit the danger from the other teams fullbacks overlapping.

Colorado plays defense first, so the midfield is always there in support, clogging channels and disrupting the attack.

Time and time again Colorado’s opponents have been able to get to the top of the 18 yard box but met with Cronin and Azira, ahead of a narrow back four, have to slow down their attack and pass sideways. If given time to set the defense up in its proper shape, Colorado extremely difficult to break down.

In closing:
Colorado team defensive performance this year as been first class – they are second best across MLS in limiting quality attacking by their opponent.  On the other hand – Portland is the highest quality attacking team in MLS this year.  Below is a diagram intended to show three things:
  1. Dark red bar – Colorado opponent’s average percentages in six categories,
  2. Dark green bar – Portland’s average percentages in six categories, and
  3. What gaps exist between each of those six categories.

CRFC DPWP vs PTFC APWP

In other words:

CRFC opponents average possession percentage is 51% while PTFC, in attack, averages 49% possession.

  • Likely meaning Portland and Colorado will be pretty near even when it comes to possession – the major ‘tell’ on that will be a couple of early goals for one team – most likely driving their possession numbers down as a wayh to protect their lead.

CRFC opponents average 75% passing accuracy while PTFC average 78% passing accuracy.

  • For me this means the best (normal starting) passers on Portland {Nagbe, Zemanski, and Borchers} need to be tuned in and see lots of touches… or the Rapids are paying so much attention to Nagbe that his gravitational pull is making space that others ‘are’ using.

CRFC opponents and PTFC penetration averages are the same.

  • In other words, I wouldn’t expect the defensive tactics for Colorado to be any different this game then any other game this year…

CRFC opponents and PTFC shots taken per completed penetrating pass averages are near the same.

  • As in the previous one – this is likely to mean the percentage of activity offered by Portland, in attack, really isn’t that much different compared to other Rapids opponents…  Meaning – if the Timbers fail to create space atop the 18 yard box it’s likely it’ll be a long day.

CRFC opponents are far less successful in converting shots taken to shots on goal – and shots on goal to goals scored.

  • For me this represents a major concern for Colorado – the quality of finishing (who’da thought that’d be said about Portland this year) by the Timbers is superb – so even if Colorado stays pretty tight at the back – that ‘pretty tight’ might not be tight enough!

It should be a classic battle of a potent attacking team against a potent defending team.

Best, Chris

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Copa-America

COPA America 2016 – To Possess or Not to Possess?

A true tactical battle awaits soccer enthusiasts this week as two traditional possession-based teams are set to square up against two traditional counter-attacking teams.

Could the script have been written better than this?

In the World Cup we saw Spain and Brazil lose considerable face while the likes of Colombia and Costa Rica pushed forward.  Brazil didn’t improve while Spain seems to have shown better in Europe.

In the end, both Germany and Argentina faced off in the finals – will we see Chile and Argentina hold up the possession-based gang of teams or can the cede-possession-based teams squeak in?

Here’s a look at how the four teams line up when viewing their composite possession with purpose:

COPA AMERICA 2016 SEMIFINALS

A slight up-tick for the USMNT from the end of group-stages while Chile kicked arse and pushed way forward.

In reflecting on the betting odds are with Bovada (see below) the possession-based teams are odds-on favorites:

  1. Argentina at -175
  2. Chile at +325
  3. Colombia at +500, and
  4. USA at +800

In peeling back the two parts of Possession with Purpose here’s how the four teams stack up against each other in attacking:

COPA AMERICA 2016 QUALITY IN ATTACKINGIn terms of overall passing accuracy not much separates the four teams and only when creating shots, and scoring goals do the differences take shape.

What’s interesting is that the possession-based teams show greater accuracy in putting shots on goal, per shots taken, but – surprisingly – the USA shows greater consistency in scoring goals, per shots taken, even with Chile absolutely decimating Mexico 7-nil.

What isn’t in this data is who’s missing from upcoming games and trying to balance out how those personnel losses impact team performance.  Who starts for the USMNT against Argentina?

  • Is it Beckerman, Zusi, and Wondolowski?
  • Is it Beckerman, Zusi, and Nagbe?
  • Is it Nagbe, Zusi, and Pulisic?
  • Is it Beckerman, Nagbe, and Pulisic?
  • Or some other option?

Lots of options and the one I’m hopeful of is Nagbe, Zusi, and Wondolowski.  I would submit the USMNT needs to stay on the front foot as much as possible (without a high press) against the passing and visionary wizardry of Argentina.

If you bunker in you’re only asking for facing 700-800 passes with nearly 25-30%% of those in your defending final third.  That much volume is surely going to see plenty of Argentina goal scoring opportunities.

Here’s how the teams stack up in defending possession with purpose – how successful their opponents are in attacking against them:

COPA AMERICA 2016 QUALITY IN DEFENDING

There’s no intent to be deceptive here – clearly Chile are wicked in attack.

But when looking at when the opponent does penetrate, and does put a shot on goal, they are likely to score against Chile!  Albeit, the actual volumes of shots on goal are small – but with clinical finishing and a disciplined defensive performance it does appear Chile could get beat.

If there’s any team that has defensive nous plus clinical finishing skills it’s Colombia.

In looking at the USA – the big weakness here is ceding just as much possession as Colombia – but a lack of speed and mentality in defending could be a downfall; especially with Jermaine Jones’ suspension.

Darlington Nagbe has paired with Diego Chara in a Timbers midfield diamond – perhaps we see that here?

Granted, Darlington Nagbe isn’t as defensive minded as Beckerman, but he possesses wicked good ball handling skills.  And if you want to try and win the midfield, and minimize an overwhelming amount of Argentina penetration. I reckon Nagbe needs to start.

As for Argentina?

Well… possession-based teams have a tendency to defend with the ball – it’s pretty clear Argentina are very good at that. So America needs to be extremely efficient in penetrating and creating; with a mix of Zusi on the wings (crossing) and Nagbe in the middle (dribble penetration) you get flexibility in addition to having both midfielders being pretty strong playing behind the ball too.

Id’ say the key for America, in defending, is two solid banks of four and plenty of midfielder pressure (in the midfield) to create turnovers.

For me, starting Pulisic is too attacking minded – and starting Beckerman is too defensive minded – hence Wondolowski, Zusi, and Nagbe.

This leaves Beckerman as a second half defensive sub and Pulisic as a second half attacking sub.

In summary:

If you’re banking on the attacking side of the equation, the early favorite is Argentina and a hedged bet on America.

If you’re banking on the defending side of the equation I’d still stick with Argentina to win it all and a hedged bet on Colombia.

Best, Chris

Caleb Porter

Timbers Shake the Quakes – Again

In perhaps their best team performance all year the Portland Timbers defeated the San Jose Earthquakes, in the fourth round of the US Open Cup, at Providence Park last night 2 – nil.

I don’t offer that lightly – the Timbers have struggled on both sides of the ball this year – not only in finishing chances but in denying chances.  As evidence – their lack of clean sheets on the back-end and a rather low number of goals scored per shots taken on the front end.

If this game shows the tenor of things to come for Portland this year the rest of Major League Soccer needs to take notice!

In particular – many times we hear that a player is a great defender because they have higher than average numbers of tackles – this couldn’t be further from the truth.

A solid defender is a person who shuts down penetration and forces the opponent to move the ball elsewhere.  Jorge Villafana was superb in doing that last year and Zarek Valentin stepped in last night and did the same.

Rarely did you see him have to tackle or leave his feet –  if memory serves I don’t recall him doing that once last night.  And I can only recall Taylor Peay doing it once himself.

When you want to give yourself a solid chance at a clean sheet you need your fullbacks to shut down the wings and force the opponent to play in low-percentage crosses.  A good indicator to support that theory is the high level of clearances last night with a high level of crosses.

Depth:

Amobi Okugo:  With the acquisition of Amobi Okugo the Timbers have shored up what I thought was a waning center-back weakness with the departure of Norberto Paparatto.  Okugo impressed me when I saw him play for Philadelphia Union, a few years ago, and that positive impression remains.  A solid defender who knows his positional role and how to support others around him.  A great awareness to be sure.

Taylor Peay:  As referenced earlier Taylor, like last year, continues to progress.  He’s shown well against the likes of Graham Zusi and others last year and apart from one instance against Shea Salinas – one of the quicker players on San Jose – he showed well again last night.

Jack Barmby:  Jack Barmby has shown good pace and quick feet since joining the Timbers – others, like Lucas Melano, have shown the same.  The difference, in my view, is that Barmby actually understood and understands how his positional play impacts and influences the play and space generated for others.  In addition, his first touch is far better.

Many may view my opinion about Lucas Melano as a personal affront – it’s not.

The youthful Lucas shows great strength in spreading the defenders wider with  his speed.  But with his considerably higher salary, and slow development of a good first touch (at least on turf), his continued role is tenable as a starter.  So the sooner Barmby matures on the pitch the better.

Others may disagree, but in my view, there is no room in MLS for highly paid players who don’t provide specific, attributable, results relative to team success on a consistent basis.

Bottom line is Lucas Melano hasn’t shown consistent value given his salary.  Perhaps a return to South America does suit Lucas better?

Tenor of tactics:

In thinking about gravitational pull – this is all about playing without the ball as much as playing with the ball.  Nearly 95% of the game a player plays without the ball.  Last night, for me, was a great example on how effective the entire team was in playing without the ball.

I think much of that has to do with what Caleb Porter touched on in his post game presser – the tenor of the Timbers attack has moved on this year.

With always trying to play a 4-3-3 Timbers players movement without the ball became predictable – if you don’t know what I mean just watch Columbus Crew.  Meaning, as advocated very early this year – the Timbers needed to move on and develop more flexible ways to attack.

Note the increased level of passing these last few games and the interaction/rotation of players within the attacking half.  All of this is to the good and should be fair warning to scouts tracking the Timbers that their penetration schemes are diverse and more dangerous – less predictable!

Improvement on the pitch:

Jack McInerney:  When I first watched Jack McInerney I didn’t think he showed a lot of grist in applying pressure or shifting about to create openings elsewhere on the pitch.  I won’t say that now – in the last few games his rotational play and finishing has been superb.  His improvement on the pitch simply makes other players more effective.  I wonder how well he’d work with Fenando Adi in a two-striker format for 75+ minutes?

The basic/bucket 4-4-2 can be quite boring at times but when it comes down to it – it’s probably one of the most fundamentally sound formations in soccer.  The greater your team is in executing the 4-4-2 (with all its nuances) the more effective other formations become.

Dairon Asprilla:   As for Dairon Asprilla – from day one he’s impressed me with his first touch and ability to play all sides of the pitch while also understanding his positional role relative to his teammates.  My concern has been his chippy mentality – like we witnessed two weeks ago.  But I don’t think it’s that chippy-ness, on the pitch, that got in his way of minutes earlier this year.

I think it’s his chippy-ness in seeing a teammate, like Lucas Melano, getting more minutes when Dairon has strong feelings/emotions that his performance on the pitch was just as good – if not better – than Melano’s.  That (might?) sound a bit dubious but players can be quite sensitive at times – especially when you need an ego to play.

A Head coach never wants a player who doesn’t show passion – the challenge for the players and team leadership is moderating that passion when not selected… his performance last night was strong – very strong – it’s good to see Dairon do well – I think he will have a key role in this team being successful this year.

And if Lucas Melano can keep things more simple and just rely on his instincts, and a better first touch, I’m sure he can add greater value too.  But if you’re going to maximize flexibility in attack it’s likely we won’t see Dairon Asprilla and Lucas Melano on the pitch at the same time… especially if Jack Barmby and Darren Mattocks improve.

Moving forward:

Nineteen games remain – max points equals 57 – an unlikely target but I’d bet every game the Timbers play will begin with the intent to get three points.

Flexibility and shifting players (in-game) to maximize different ways and means to penetrate, create, and score goals is critical – but not as critical as holding the opponent scoreless.  The defensive side of this team has not been good so far – it NEEDS to improve.

One game is not a trend, but this latest litmus test shows that fullbacks on the Timbers are getting better at locking down the wing penetration – can they sustain that lock down?

The weekend game against Real Salt Lake is the next test – can they continue?

Best, Chris

 

Houston Dynamo Logo

Houston Dynamo Scouting Report

With Wade Barrett as the interim Head Coach I thought I’d offer a scouting report on this team for your consideration. 

As a caveat – I have not viewed any team video nor have a I seen Houston play this year.  A report like this would be used, in my view, prior to reviewing team video.  There are two ways to read this – read the details to begin with and then read the underlined summaries – or simply read the underlined summaries.

That said, here’s what the tea-leaves offer to me in reviewing team performance statistics publicly available for all to view.

ATTACKING:

Passing:

  • My information indicates an average possession percentage of 45.42% with no real variation between home and away games.
  • Passing accuracy, unlike possession, varies from home or away games (72% versus 69% respectively).
  • In terms of overall penetration percentage – both home and away games see them averaging just under 30% of total possession in the attacking third.
  • And of those completed passes within the attacking final third 18.32% of them end up creating shots taken in home games and just over 16% of them end up with shots taken in away games.
  • Overall that sees Houston with the 2nd lowest total possession percentage, 2nd lowest passing accuracy percentage, 3rd highest percentage of overall passes completed in the attacking final third compared to the entire pitch, and 9th worst shots taken per completed pass in the attacking final third.

In other words – low possession percentages, low passing accuracy percentages, higher than normal volumes of penetration resulting in lower volumes of shots taken per completed pass.

  • Two years ago, under Dom Kinnear, they were 9th overall in possession, 11th overall in passing accuracy, 5ht highest in percentage of overall passes completed in the attacking final third compared to the entire pitch, and 6th highest in shots taken per completed pass within the attacking final third.
  • Last year, under Owen Coyle, they were 7th lowest in overall possession, 6th worst in overall passing accuracy, 8th best in percentage of overall passes completed in the attacking final third compared to the entire pitch, and 9th worst in shots taken per completed pass within the attacking final third.

Bottom line here is, under Owen Coyle, the Houston Dynamo had worse team attacking performance indicators than they did under Dom Kinnear. And it would appear the majority of their attacking scheme relied on quick ball movement – front to back – and that hurried pace appears to have negatively impacted their volume of shots. Said differently, it would appear they had a higher than average volume of wasted penetration.

Other team attacking statistics:

  • Aerials won = near top of the league (15.8 per game)
  • Crosses per game = near top of the league (20 per game)
  • Long Balls = mid-table in the league (71 per game)
  • Short passes = bottom of the league (283 per game)
  • Average length of pass = near top of the league (21 meters per pass)
  • Total volume of passes this year = near bottom of the league (3,900 in total compared to Kansas City (top in the league at 6,012)
  • Dribbling = second worst in the league in dribbles per game (4.5 per game)
  • Key passes = 5th worst in the league (90 in total)

Passing Conclusion:

  • With just 4.5 dribbles per game the playing style seems more about first touch, second touch, and pass, than taking time to turn, dribble and create/make space.
  • Given the higher volume of longer passes, more crossing, less dribbling, lower passing accuracy, fewer key passes, and less possession I would offer Houston are a second-chance (direct) ball attacking team with very little possession-based penetration.
  • Predictability is a word that comes to mind and the only manufactured un-predictability is generated through second-chance ball rebounds.
  • When viewing video it’d be interesting to see which players are more comfortable on the ball.
  • I’d also offer it appears the majority of players are not very good at creating individual space for themselves or for teammates.
  • A weakness of many teams in this league I’d offer.
  • Another potential takeaway is that the lower passing accuracy is also a resultant of the back-four having to relieve pressure through clearances or simply putting the ball out of play instead of gaining higher volumes of passes by starting out of the back.

Shooting:

  • My information indicates Houston have the highest percentage of shots on goal per shots taken (56.85%).
  • At the same time that highest average in accuracy results in having the 7th worst goals scored per shots on goal.
  • 41% of all shots taken come from the left wing, while 36% come from the right wing and only 23% come from the middle of the pitch.

In other words they are extremely strong at putting the shot on target but very ineffective in scoring and very predictable in where they will attack from.

  • Two years ago, under Dom Kinnear, they were 2nd worst in putting shots on goal from shots taken and worst in scoring goals per shots on goal.
  • Last year, under Owen Coyle, they were 5th worst in shots on goal per shots taken Shots Taken and 7th worst in goals scored per shots on goal.

Said differently, Houston has done a better job of creating chances under Owen Coyle but been far worse in converting those chances to goals scored – does that equate to ‘lacking a goal scorer?

Shooting Conclusion:

  • I’d offer they probably have a reasonable striker on their team but they don’t have the same ability, as they did under Kinnear, to create more time and better space to score the goal. I do not track individual striker statistics – never have – too many unknowns to see value in drawing conclusions.  I’d welcome thoughts from those closer to Houston – and no – I don’t rely on Expected Goals – it’s over-valued in my view; great idea but not reliable.

In Closing the book on Attacking:

  • I’d offer their attacking support provided by the fullbacks and midfielders is a concern.
  • Whether that comes from Owen Coyle 1) employing the wrong tactics, given the skills of his players, 2) his players not executing their roles or 3) the players don’t have the skills to execute more possession-based penetration in attacking is unclear.
  • In viewing activities from other MLS teams, over the last 3 years, I’d offer Houston probably needs 2 to 3 more midfielders and perhaps another fullback or two.
  • Two other questions come to mind:
  1. Has Owen Coyle ever run this team with inverted wingers?
  2. Do the training sessions focus on 1/2/3 touch football or perhaps as much as 5 touch football?
  • I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a team practice extended touch-turn-dribble-turn-touch/pass training; a lost art in my view.
  • Too much quick ball movement training – in my view – leads to minimizing thinking and decision making on the pitch – with or without the ball… and 95% of the game is mental…

DEFENDING:

Passing:

  • My information indicates an average opponent possession percentage of 54.5% with no real variation between home and away games.
  • Opponent passing accuracy percentages are 75.92%; above the league average.
  • In terms of overall opponent penetration percentage – both home and away games see them averaging 23.87% of total possession in the Houston defending third.
  • And of those completed passes, by the opponent, within their defending final third 20.75% of them end up creating shots taken; that is 3rd highest in the league.
  • Overall that sees opponents for Houston with the 2nd best possession percentage, 11th best passing accuracy percentage, 11th highest percentage of overall passes completed in the Houston defending final third compared to the entire pitch, and 3rd highest percentage of shots taken per completed pass in their defending final third.

In other words the opponents are not only having possession, they are successful in penetrating, and creating shots taken given that penetration.

  • Two years ago, under Dom Kinnear, Houston opponent’s were mid-table in possession, 4th most accurate in passing, 12th best in percentage of overall penetration per completed pass, and 4th highest in yielding shots taken given that penetration.
  • Last year, under Owen Coyle, Houston opponent’s were 7th best in possession, 5th worst in passing accuracy, 12th best in percentage of overall penetration per completed pass, and 8th lowest in yielding shots taken given that penetration.

Passing Conclusion:

  • I’d submit the defending unit, this year, has regressed from last year. Said differently, it doesn’t appear they are very successful in limiting the opponent’s time and space to create shots taken given any type of penetration.

Shooting:

  • Houston opponent’s have the 3rd best shots on goal per shots taken ratio (41.32%) but the 6th worst goals scored per shots on goal.

Said differently, the overall volume of possession and penetration is resulting in higher accuracy of shots on goal – that translates to more goals scored even though the percentage of goals scored per shots on goal is not high.

Or… it may appear that their goal keeper is actually keeping them in the game when, otherwise, their defensive unit is faltering or… the inability of the opponent to finish their chances could play a part too; Houston opponent’s have the 6th highest average number of missed chances, per game against Houston, of any team in MLS.

  • Two years ago, under Dom Kinnear, Houston opponents only saw ~35% of their shots taken result in being on goal but their conversion rate of goals scored to shots on goal was 8th best at ~33%
  • Last year, under Owen Coyle, Houston opponents were 4th best in shots on goal per shots taken and 3rd best in goals scored per shots on goal.

In other words it also appears their defensive ability in stopping shots, under Owen Coyle, has regressed in the last two years.

Shooting Conclusion:

  • I’d offer either 1) the defensive tactical approach is inadequate against the majority of MLS teams 2) the defensive capabilities of the players didn’t meet the tactical roles Coyle offered, 3) team scouting reports were not effective enough in identifying opponent attacking characteristics/trends, or 4) the defensive skills of the players simply isn’t good enough compared to the attacking skills of the opponents.

In Closing the book on Defending:

  • I’d submit the defending unit has regressed – i.e. not kept up with the opponent’s progressions in attacking.

OVERALL ASSESSMENT:

  • Are there organizational weaknesses in scouting, training, tactical preparation, or skilled players? Not sure – but it appears systemic.
  • It’s unclear (without watching video) what the issues are in defending – they don’t make defensive mistakes (as measured) like many other teams in MLS – intuiting that it’s the tactics that are pear-shaped.
  • Playing direct all the time is like riding a dead horse. When riding a head horse do you:
  • Buy a stronger whip?
  • Develop a training session to improve that horse?
  • Remind ourselves that other clubs ride this same horse?
  • Name the dead horse “paradigm shift” and keep riding it?
  • Remember all the good times you had while riding that horse?
  • Take a positive outlook – pronounce that the dead horse doesn’t have to be fed – it is less costly, carries lower overhead and therefore contributes substantially more to the bottom line of the team’s budget than do some other horses?
  • I’d offer you get a new, more flexible horse that can be rode many different ways.

I can offer this type of scouting report on any team in Major League Soccer – in some cases I can provide even more detail – especially for teams I regularly watch on TV.

Best, Chris

COPYRIGHT, All Rights Reserved.  PWP – Trademark

COPA America 2016 – Who wins it?

I don’t have the answer to that question but here’s what my early tea-leaves look like when viewing Possession with Purpose.  

COPA America 2016

Unlike Major League Soccer – parity isn’t present when it comes to this competition.

If you’re a betting person it’s likely one of those top three teams (Brazil, Mexico, or Argentina) are going to win this tournament… provided higher levels of possession and penetration result in more goals scored.

On the other hand – if you’re thinking a team who cedes possession has a chance – then teams like Peru, Colombia, or the United States might finish up top.

The other two odd ones are Venezuela and Chile…

In looking at the overall statistics note that Composite TSR has a lower correlation to points earned than PWP – the point here is that shots, alone, do not tell the story… 

Like the European Champions League, Men’s World Cup 2014, Women’s Cup 2015, English Premier League, Bundesliga, and La Liga, total shots do not tell the appropriate story.

The same cannot be said for Major League Soccer – at least not this year…

Best, Chris

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us-soccer-crest-2016

Hypothetical Interview as a Head Coach of the #USMNT

My motivation for offering this article stems from reading this interview session  Matthew Futterman had with Jurgen Klinsmann through the Wall Street Journal. Great article – recommend you read it!

Coaching soccer in America is not like coaching soccer in Europe.

 

Here’s my hypothetical interview as if I were still a Head Coach using the same questions in the interview session Jurgen Klinsmann had with the Wall Street Journal. 

As a caveat – there is no way I can answer questions specifically about some individual talent as I don’t see the players train – where questions like that appear I will offer what I think are the critical things any player needs to work on to play at the national level.

WSJ: How important is this tournament to you?

Very important.  It’s the pen-ultimate tournament leading to the World Cup.  This is a great place to test the skills and mentality of the players we’ve been developing the last two years.  Critical here is learning while recognizing the intent to win.  We enter this tournament expecting to win – every team does.  Our next step, after this tournament, is to deal with the successes/failures we’ve had and how we can get better from them as we prepare for the World Cup – the ultimate measure of success for soccer.

WSJ: How does this tournament fit in with the transition process from 2014 to the 2018 World Cup? Is it a place to test young players or will you rely on players who have experienced big moments before?

Yes.  This is the pen-ultimate type of competition you want your best skilled players (with development in mind) to get time playing against the other best players across the America’s – team development is just as critical as individual development.  I don’t expect miracles like we saw in 1980 – but – in as much as ice-hockey is an individualized team sport – so is soccer.  If you create the right motivational environment – give your players room to fail; accept and build from that failure they will then learn to succeed.

If failure in this tournament leads to success in the World Cup I have done my job.  Bottom line here – I don’t care how well these players play for their club – they are not playing for their club they are playing for the United States.  If that means each of these guys shows a different level of mentality playing for me than their club Head Coach – great – then I sense I’m being successful as their leader.  If their skills and mentality are not coming to bear, on the pitch, when they play for me, then it’s my fault.  It’s my job to set the right conditions for their success – when that success doesn’t occur – AND no learning for both parties doesn’t occur – then it’s time for me to be replaced.

WSJ: How are the younger players in your program coming along?

I don’t think they are coming along very well – and that’s my fault.  I’ve have failed to give them the opportunity to learn from failure.  As their Head Coach I need to stretch and pull their mentality every which way possible.  This doesn’t just include physical training – it includes mental training.  At this level what separates good from great players is their mentality…

If the players don’t have the right mentality then I’ve failed to put them in the appropriate environment to get better in that area.   Does that mean every player can attain the right level of mentality?  No…  We have a saying in the military – if you’re a rock going in it’s likely you’ll be a rock going out (but everyone gets a chance).  The key to a successful squad is throwing out the rocks and keeping the soil that can feed the plants of success that bear the fruit of victory.

WSJ: Does the learning curve need to start earlier, at 13 or 14 the way it does in Europe instead of 18?

Yes.  I’ve read the training program we have for youth (that starts at the U-12 level).  The word “mentality” does not appear anywhere in the primary headings of our training plans.  In addition, perhaps the single most important skill, “first touch” is also not mentioned anywhere in the primary headings of our training plans.  For me this needs to change.

It represents, in my view, a complete lack of understanding on how we can influence are youth development to better enable adult mentality needed in a tournament like this.  In other words, it’s psychological changes in repeatedly stressing the right verbiage to drive home/reinforce critical skills and behavior I expect players to have when they report to USMNT training sessions.

The earlier in the power curve of their development the better.  We mustn’t forget we were all once children – I think children are smarter than we give them credit for and the earlier we test those smarts, even if it means initial failure, the better.  Most everyone I’ve ever met in my life who has been successful – has failed…  entitlement is not a word that works for soccer in this country and getting the right mentality that no player ‘deserves’ to be selected needs to start as early as possible.

WSJ: Does fighting for a spot in MLS count or does it have to be internationally?

No – once my staff and I have reviewed their initial skills and how they execute those skills in their club environment – how much time they garner in playing for their club no longer matters to me.  I take on players who I think have the right skills to be successful representing the United States, not those that do great for their club but don’t fit into this country’s team.  Just because a player scores or gets an assist for their club has ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with whether or not they can do the same for the United States.

In my view this is where many-many people completely misunderstand individual statistics stemming from domestic soccer.  The fact that Johnny scores for his club means nothing to me – why – because the team he plays for with me is a different team, in a completely different environment.  I assess individual behavior that includes mentality (nous) and execution on the pitch relative to specific tactics we think will help the team be successful against our opponent.

The greater the flexibility a player has in playing under different tactical situations the better.  But I do ask for and want specialists – it never hurts to have a set-piece specialist – at the same time I’d also expect that specialist to have very strong abilities to play multiple roles if injuries occur.

I’ll put it this way – if I have 24 players to choose from I’d expect at least one of them to have a throw-in that exceeds 20-30 meters and I’d also expect at least one of them to have a wicked free kick.  The challenge is finding multiple players who have individual skills like these while also having the talent and understanding to play a full 90 + minutes.  We should never forget set-pieces win games!

WSJ: Two years ago, you said Gedion Zelalem was talented enough to play for the national team. What happened to him?

I have spoken with one of the top statistics people at Arsenal FC.  They know Gedion has the right skills to play, I trust what they offer.  I would bring him in every single time we train and help him develop the mentality to play for the United States; I don’t care if he gets minutes in Europe or not.  He’s here to play for me and the United States not his club.  At the end of the day if he needs nurturing – so be it…  If he finds playing time it’s because he’s a part of the soil that helps our country bear the fruit of success.

WSJ: How do you balance the need to give young players a chance and winning games you need to win?

In between the World Cups all competitions, for this country, are about developing for the next World Cup.  Some players might have great skills but if there is a point where those skills are likely to wane in the very near future then it’s time for them to take up their responsibility to train their replacement just like I need to train their replacement.  Our country is our team – if you want to play for the United States you need to learn/understand that training your replacement is part of replenishing the nutrients in the soil of our players.

WSJ: Did you expect to be still relying on Clint Dempsey and Jermaine Jones and other players already over 30?

At this stage, no.  As a Head Coach I would offer it’s my fault that we don’t have at least two to three #9’s in the wings who can step in and play, fail, and get better…  this same mistake has been made with respect to our midfielders.

Even now Michael Bradley shouldn’t be starting – I have should have at least two #6’s in the queue ahead of Michael if I’ve been successful these last five years.  I don’t – that is my fault.  Saying that – we have a special player in our team now – Darlington Nagbe – he has perhaps the best foot skills of any player in MLS.

Can he bring that to the USMNT? I think so.  He should be given every chance (90 minutes at a time) to fail so that we can assess his future success.  I know Michael Bradley can play – what I don’t know is how well the others can.  This tournament is a learning experience first that always includes the intent to win.  I must balance that winning with development and the end-state – winning the World Cup…

WSJ: Younger players say you give little in the way of instruction, that you say things like “let your personality show,” or “make a statement.” Why do you speak in such generalities?

That is wrong for me to say that.  I am a teacher/coach.  I should be asking them questions not telling them to ‘let their personality show’.  As Head Coach my job it to enhance their skills and improve their mentality – put them in settings to help them learn to make decisions on the pitch.  Some players respond differently – so I need to adjust my approach for every player because every player is different.

We have another saying in the military – don’t treat everyone the same – treat everyone differently.  Why?  Because we are not all the same – we are all different – therefore my leadership skills with all those players needs to adjust to maximize their learning capacity and capability.  But let’s not forget – if you’re a rock going in it’s likely you’re a rock going out.

WSJ: The former West Germany star Paul Breitner made a similar comment recently. Is this a European way of thinking?

I did not make a  comment, I think, that would warrant this follow-up question.  If I had here’s what I would offer.

Europe is completely different to America – what works in Europe works in Europe.  It’s important to find out what approaches work best in America given the different environment in which we live.  As a leader I should know, given my past experience, what styles of leadership work best  – whether they learned the game in Europe or America doesn’t matter once they make my squad.  If I can’t adjust my leadership style to different players shame on me…

WSJ: Do you feel like the U.S. will get where fans want it to get?

I am hopeful, yes…  I am always critical of myself and perhaps too critical of others – at least it may come across that way.  But really, I am a very tolerant person who just has an excessive amount of passion on what right looks like – so therefore my views – perhaps delivered somewhat harshly – are not intended to be critical of others – they are intended to offer what I think right looks like.

I’ll put it this way – I’m not a yes-man… never have been,  I believe passion is needed to create a better learning environment – but of that passion may mean conflicts are generated.  If those conflicts remain constructive then I sense everyone gets better.  Whether it’s my idea or someone else’s is okay with me.

Bottom line – as always – there is failure – hopefully I too learn from my failure.  If I don’t do that very well my missus will help me with that. 🙂

WSJ: Do you like what you see from players like Matt Miazga, of Chelsea, and Christian Pulisic, of Borussia Dortmund?

From what I’ve seen – yes.  They should be on our country’s team – they aren’t here because I’ve not been good enough as a Head Coach to help them get here.  Mistakes are made – and in soccer that’s a good thing – except in the World Cup…  The more playing time and training I give them now the less likely they are to make mistakes in the World Cup.

WSJ: What does Seattle’s Jordan Morris need to do?

Get better at his first touch, second touch, striking, passing, turning, dribbling, and fitness – but most important he needs to get better at playing when he doesn’t have the ball…  i.e. improve his mentality and understanding his roles when not on the ball.  This is the mantra for all those who would play for the United States.  This is not a specific critique of Jordan – it’s an expectation that every player works on those things all the time.  For me, there are no exceptions to that rule.  Indeed – as a learning point perhaps for others — 90% of all training with the USMNT should be mental training without the ball.  Ninety percent of the game a player plays is without the ball – therefore nearly 90% of their training should be ‘off the ball’.

In closing:

I am not in a position to Head Coach the United States of America – but I think I understand football…  and the leadership requirements behind leading a team.

In reading what Jurgen Klinsmann offered I would say he’s not got the same views that I do…

Is it worthy for me to offer criticism – I think so – I am a citizen of the United States of America – that is a right we all have… for better or worse.

And for what it is worth – I think my approach would work better than his; others may view that differently; as long as I’ve been around football it’s rude not to expect there will be differing opinions.

However viewed, like any American, I want the United States to win this tournament – the game with Colombia kicks off in about an hour or so…

Here’s hoping we win, and if not, we learn from losing…

Best, Chris

 

 

Created by PTFCollective

Quality in MLS – is it on Par with top European League Teams?

All teams have passed the one-third mile marker this year so I figure I’ve got enough reasonable information to draw a new comparison for your consideration.

How well is Colorado playing this year, in terms of quality, versus some of the top teams in Europe for 2014/2015?

I want to look at two ways to answer that question; one from an attacking perspective and one from a defending perspective.  

My comparison teams are Manchester City, Bayern Munich, and Barcelona:

quality in attacking

 

Pretty striking in comparison if you’re a Rapids supporter; Colorado:

  1. Are dead even with Bayern Munich in percentage of penetration versus overall possession,
  2. Have the highest percentage of shots taken per completed pass within and into the attacking final third than any of those other teams,
  3. Exceed Manchester City in shots on goal per shots taken, and
  4. Are right there with the big boys when viewing goals scored per shots on goal.

In other words – when viewing overall productivity (quality/efficiency in the attacking final third) Colorado show just as much quality in execution (by percentage) as some of the best teams in the world.

Here’s how Colorado compares to those same teams in quality defending against their opponent’s attack:

quality in defending

At first glance Colorado obviously cede more possession but when it comes to the other categories measured Colorado:

  1. Faces roughly the same level of passing accuracy, if not higher, by their opponent’s,
  2. Have a greater percentage of opponent penetration versus overall possession,
  3. Have near equal percentages in opponent shots taken per penetrating possession, and
  4. Compete against opponent’s who are more accurate, than opponent’s of Manchester City, Bayern Munich, and Barcelona.

All told – with the real exception of possession percentages – the quality of Colorado defensive play, in Major League Soccer (compared to their opponent’s) is on par with those top teams in Europe.

In Closing:

I wonder what those percentages looked like for Leicester City last year?  Might those numbers be similar?

If they are, might those outputs signal a change in the dynamics on how teams can win more in top leagues without possession?

Might we see these same characteristics begin to unfold, more, in the World Cup?

  • If you recall from the 2014 World Cup Colombia and the Netherlands performed quite well without possessing the ball.
  • And Atletico Madrid did quite well in the UEFA Champions League too…

However viewed – this analysis is not an attempt to convince others that the skill level of players in Major League Soccer matches that of players with these teams in Europe.

But it should continue to reinforce to Head Coaches across the world that possession is not the only way to win…

In addition it should also support that defending against the opponent’s penetration and finishing skills is just as critical as finding the right mix of your own penetration and finishing skills.

Perhaps less obvious –  with less accuracy in passing, and less possession on the ball, first touch is even more important in MLS than in Europe.

Best, Chris

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us-soccer-crest-2016

Training soccer in America. Gob-smackingly obvious – or is it?

A long time ago I was a soccer Head Coach – I still am – but since I’m not actually coaching now I don’t have the agony of making tough decisions anymore – that’s down to others.  

That said, my inactivity as a coach doesn’t keep me from adding my own two cents/tuppence worth every now and then.

This is one of those “thens”…. and what I think ‘right looks like’ when it comes to training soccer here in America.  To lend balance of my thoughts I’ve asked Coach Reed Maltbie (a current coach with affiliation to US Soccer) to submit his additional thoughts at the end of this article.

Resources that may add value before, during, or after you read this are the US Youth Soccer Coaches manual and the U-12 training activities; a prime age, I think, to begin in-depth mentality training.

In addition – here’s a summary (verbatim) from US Soccer on the U-12 training activities:

  • In an effort to understand and improve the U-12 player we have to begin opening the player’s eyes to the thinking aspects of the game. These areas that count on players seeing and responding depend on the concept of decision-making. In the end, all players must constantly be evaluating the entire field and making decisions related to offensive and defensive situations that are occurring. Each player must add to the team effort. To accomplish this, each player must be astute enough to assist.
  • The philosophy behind this book is to provide activities that will place the U-12 player in an environment in which he will have to make proper decisions. If a player is placed in this type of environment over many years, he can develop the vision play at top levels. This decision-making process does not develop in a training environment that is drill-like in structure. Fitness and technique are very important concerns as well, but tactical awareness can only develop with repeated practice in a thought-provoking environment.
  • In closing, let’s just remember that tactics involve a great number of factors, but that for the U-12 player, tactics are related to the area of decision-making. Without thinking and proper decisions, we have something that resembles soccer, but not soccer!

My observations for your consideration:  

  • Young players are actually smarter than we think they are.
  • An adult game of soccer goes for 90 minutes with two 45 minute halves; those numbers get smaller the younger you are.
  • In 90 minutes – one player touches the ball (on average) 1/22 of the time compared to everyone else; varies given skill levels.
  • In terms of time that means, within the 90 minutes of a game, the average player possesses/can directly influence control of the ball for two-to-three minutes.
  • f a player averages 50 possessions per game that equals (on average) about three seconds of controlling the ball per possession; not much time.
  • What, on average, can a player accomplish in 2.93 seconds of possession?
    • a first touch?
    • a second touch?
    • a turn?
    • a dribble?
    • a pass?
  • When excluding striking the ball on goal that’s pretty much what happens during those 2.93 seconds of control.

So if you’re breaking down a training regimen, the most frequently occurring event is ‘first touch’.    

Why is it when I view the U-12 training plan there isn’t one session called ‘first touch’?  There is passing, turning, dribbling, and heading but the MOST important part of the game – first touch – is only referenced within the depths of the training plan.  And if you read the summary provided earlier it’s not mentioned at all!

A comment about dribbling – I’ve read that the average distance a player dribbles the ball in a soccer match is ~ 180 meters out of roughly 10 kilometers per game.  Just curious why we spend so much time learning how to dribble the ball when the frequency of that event in a game simply doesn’t warrant the high level of time expended in training it.

If you’re going to allocate training times to key aspects of the game then it seems to me first touch, second touch, turning, and passing are the most frequently occurring events – so for me 90% of all ‘on-the-ball’ training should focus on those aspects of the game and only short periods of time would be devoted to dribbling challenges.

Moving on to the other 87 minutes of the game where the player has no direct control of the ball.

Not one training session for U-12’s is titled “playing without the ball” – yet the MOST frequent event a player encounters on the pitch is — playing without the ball.

Can you train this activity?  I think so – but I would offer part of this training plan includes homework…  actually watching and listening to soccer games.

I would submit this training plan needs to capture non-ball activities for all primary positions on the soccer pitch – and as the players get older video analysis should be added to see how those same positions have different roles in different formations.

I’d also offer part of this training plan needs to include asking the player some questions relative to your teaching points:

  • Was the player creating space for others by entering a new space?
  • Was the player adjusting their position based upon their opponent’s movement without the ball?
  • When that player made an adjustment – did any of his/her teammates/opponents make an adjustment as well?
  • I’m sure there are many questions a coach can develop to stress a specific decision-making learning point.
  • For example – if you are teaching players how to create width on the pitch having someone stand near each sideline is not a bad thing – it does actually help stretch out the opponents defense.  (i.e. – the appearance of ball watching is not always a bad thing).

In closing:

The bottom line – training soccer needs to include as much, if not more, training without the ball as with the ball…

The other aspect not discussed here is fitness training – conducting fitness training without the ball reinforces the mental part of the game and supports players understanding that ~95% of the game they will play is done so without the ball.

Here’s what Coach Reed Maltbie had to offer:

The enemy of progress is perpetuating the assumptions we have always held but never tested. In coaching, we believe we need to spoon feed young players because they are not ‘mentally ready’, yet we also ask them to help us with our smart phones because they can figure out complex technology in seconds that we cannot figure out in weeks. Maybe we should stop assuming and empower them to show us how capable they really are. Every license course I have ever taken is focused on how smart us adults are and doesn’t even consider the child. It is not youth sports, it adults playing with puppets.

To paraphrase – US Soccer focuses on winning the World Cup. …….. Instead – a worthy objective is to establish true development.  Maybe we should actually put the player in the center of the decision-making matrix when building out mandates, training programs, evaluation standards, etc.

Add to the mix we added two more players to the playing surface and did not proportionally increase pitch size, and we will have a pinball game. Panic at the pitch! Less space, more bodies, no emphasis on technical development spells disaster.

Why do we insist on rending technical away from tactical? Intelligent players are taught in a holistic environment that combines the two so they understand how and what to do but also when and where to do it. We cannot separate out the two components. Watch any session by the world’s greatest teams and the sessions are technical and tactically balanced. Rondo is a great example. It works on both aspects in a game situation.

We still teach soccer in a vacuum. We still expect children to develop at the rate of the world even though we don’t live, breathe, and exist in a soccer culture. They go to games, watch them on TV, and play them on the pick up fields.  We don’t encourage this. We hope 2 days a week will suffice.

We are not Socratic enough in our coaching process.  We always solve the puzzle, spoon feed the answers, and never ask enough questions. We should teach like Socrates to let them form their own thoughts and develop their own analysis.

I think we emphasize soccer too much in the licensing process. We do not teach our coaches to look outside the game. To learn development, psychology, education, ethics, communication, culture, etc….The more we approach educating players as a holistic practice, the more we create holistic players.

This can be done without sacrificing the “game situation” concept. Incorporate fitness characteristics into game situations so they are intermittently with ball and without ball working both. Get creative. We expect it from the players, we should be more creative in how we coach them.

Best, Chris

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Rapids for Real? PWP Power Rankings After Week 10

When week three of Major League Soccer closed the second best team performance in measuring possession with purpose was Colorado Rapids – fast forward to the end of week ten and who should sit second best in team performance? Colorado Rapids!

So if you think their early start was a fluke – think again.

MLS CPWP Power Rankings Through Week 10

And to clarify – my power rankings are purely objective – no fancy opinions – no feelings – no indirect or direct influence by one person over another – it’s clinical, objective, published in Europe, and presented at the 2014 World Conference on Science and Soccer.

Bottom line here – there is no subjectivity and how a team finished last year has absolutely no bearing on where that team started and ranks this year.

Some thoughts about the teams after week ten:

  • New York City now leads the Power Ranking, and probably for good reason.  They’ve earned good points of late and with Patrick Vieira in charge it’s likely their overall balance in, possession-based, purposeful penetration (as we see quite often in England) has begun to take shape here.
  • The hum-bummers from week three to week ten are Houston Dynamo – their fall from grace is nine places…  now they not only don’t earn points they don’t score goals either.  Luckily Owen Coyle doesn’t have to worry about relegation in this country!
  • The big deceiver so far are Columbus Crew – in other words they look good here but look terrible in the league table.  This is a great example of two things – one that stats don’t always tell the story and two there are more ways to earn points than one.
  • Montreal Impact is the big sleeper here – like F.C. Dallas last year the Impact are earning points with less possession – if you played Advanced Dungeons and Dragons you’d probably offer that the Impact are diametrically opposed to the Crew – I’d say your right.
  • Other (Galant) Steady-Eddies, in the early going, appear to be Real Salt Lake and Orlando City.
  • The (Goofus) Steady-Eddies appear  to be Portland Timbers, New England Revolution, Chicago Fire, and D.C. United.
  • For Portland their downside is defending – it’s terrible and the loss of Jorge Villafana remains a gap unfilled!  You say Chris Klute has stepped in – I say he hasn’t – the reason why is simple – Diego Chara continues to get pulled wide and it leaves a huge defensive gap atop the 18 yard box.  The longer the opponents succeed in having Diego Chara spend large amounts of time defending low risk attacking areas the better.   And who teaches those guys to defend set-pieces?  WOW!
  • In regards to United and the Fire – who knows what gives there – perhaps the only thing that wakes up the owner of Chicago is another MLS team starting up in Chicago!  As for United – Ben Olsen pretty much punted the entire 2013 season and it looks like that will be the case this year.  If you’re going to bet on a U.S. Open Cup winner this year – go with D.C. United.

The CPWP Index – two views…

MLS CPWP Index Without Graphics Through Week 10

MLS CPWP Index Through Week 10

Over the remainder of the year I’m going to offer up four teams who fit these categories the best:

  • Good possession with good purpose – New York City
  • Little possession with good purpose – Montreal Impact
  • Good possession with no purpose – Columbus Crew
  • Little possession with no purpose – DC United

And to follow that some additional insight for your consideration (the way to really see why you can’t simply look at attacking or defending statistics separately – you must look at them together)

MLS APWP Index Through Week 10

The diagram above shows Attacking PWP only – this is strictly the statistical roll up of each teams attacking team performance.  Note the four blue bars – these are the top three teams in each conference.  Now my observations relative to what the Index shows:

  • L.A. Galaxy – their are top of the Attacking PWP Index – meaning – from a points earned standpoint the best way to best understand their overall success is to track how well they score goals.
  • Real Salt Lake – like the Galaxy a great way to understand their success is to understand their attacking statistics.
  • Colorado and Montreal are slightly further down the Index – what does this mean?  It means their attacking statistics add value but that’s not what their overall success is directly related to when it comes to points earned.
  • Philadelphia Union and Toronto F.C. are on the lower end of the Index – meaning their attacking isn’t really the main driver on why they have been successful in earning points – it’s more about something else.  What is that?

Here’s the Defending PWP Index – same approach applies here – this is a statistical roll up of each teams defending team performance ((i.e. how well the opponents’ combined attacking PWP data goes against their defenders); again the top three teams in each conference are shown with blue bars:

MLS DPWP Index Through Week 10

  • Toronto FC are best in the defending Index – with Colorado right on their heels.  What does this mean?  It means the defending unit for those two teams is a considerable factor in those teams taking points – one could argue – given Philadelphia’s position in fourth the same can be said for them.  Put another way – if these three teams continue to play strong defense they should continue to take points.
  • Real Salt Lake is a tad bit further down the line and of all the teams this year they appear the most balanced when it comes to taking points – in other words their effective in playing with or without the ball.
  • The same could almost be said for Montreal – with one exception – they don’t like to play with the ball so their defending statistics are not going to show well.
  • As for the Galaxy – they are near bottom of this Index – pretty much confirming that if/when they earn points they do so because they score more goals than their opponents.

In Closing:

  • Note the “r’ for DPWP is -.42 and for APWP it is .37 – and then see that the ‘r’ for CPWP is .61.  What this means is that on their own neither the Attacking nor Defending PWP team performance statistics have as strong a relationship to points earned in the league table than the combined PWP Index.  Further statistical validation that individual and team attacking statistics cannot and will not properly account for the true value of a player on the pitch.
  • This statistical relationship has occurred every year in every league I’ve measured across Major League Soccer, Europe, as well as the Men’s and Women’s World Cup!
  • So if you see pundits or sports writers/analysts making a big deal about one players’ individual attacking statistics it’s bollocks; it takes viewing both sides of the pitch to know the true value of a player and how they impact the team.

Best, Chris

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Darlington Nagbe and Diego Chara play the double pivot in a singular way

Dealing without Darlington

There’s no question the pain of losing Darlington Nagbe, for us supporters, is nowhere near the physical pain Nagbe experienced as a result of that brutal tackle by Nigel de Jong!

  • I get it and the discipline handed out by MLS will come nowhere near what it should be – however long Darlington is out is however long de Jong should be out – plus five more games…. it was a brutal tackle that certainly appeared, to me, as intentional – especially when you view his history and how closely it matches that of Vinnie Jones – the notorious hard-man for Wimbledon in the 90’s.
  • That said – Caleb Porter has indicated the Portland Timbers are a team – they are – they win, draw, or lose together and while Darlington is healing the Timbers, as a team, need to move forward.

How do they do that?

Motivation:

  • No question the Timbers will be motivated – an injury like that draws a team together even more.
  • And with the surge in team defending we saw last weekend they should be ready tonight.

Tactics:

  • With the return to a double pivot last weekend it is likely that shape occurs again this weekend – defense first…
  • So my short answer on who starts in place of Darlington is… either Ned Grabavoy or (perhaps?) Jack Barmby – do others have a different view on this?
  • It’s not a one-for-one swap (at least physically) but it should be with respect to mentality.
  • This keeps the changeover in personnel and tactics to a minimum and allows the Timbers to work in a familiar pattern; more so with Ned Grabavoy me thinks…
  • If Caleb throws a tactical wrinkle in here I’d be surprised – minimizing change is a good thing – even more so with Liam Ridgewell still out.

Strategy:

  • Manage possession with the intent to possess, and then
  • Manage penetration with the intent to control time and space while creating shot opportunities that maximize their potential for being on goal.
  • This does not mean offering up 20-25 shots taken – I think it means a bit more patience in possession and penetration; others may see that differently.

Defending:

  • Rocket Science it’s not – F.C. Dallas are notorious for playing counter-attacking – so it’s reasonable to expect the Timbers should be able to defend with the ball in some part of the midfield.
  • Whether that extends into the Dallas portion of central midfield is unclear – figure the first fifteen minutes will give us a good idea on how that takes shape.
  • Controlling the wings – Chris Klute showed well last weekend – certainly offering up a much better (in my view) awareness of time and space out wide and how the opponents attacked those spaces.
  • Speed will be a greater issue to deal with tonight – so let’s hope the back four remain tight and we see strong support from the central defending midfielders.

All to play for:

  • Caleb Porter has shown time and again that he can rise to the challenge on dealing with team injuries and the psychological motivation needed to get his team to perform at their best.
  • It’s not something advertised greatly in the soccer reporter world but when you coach a team, and you lose a key player, there rises within you (as a coach) and extra surge of mental energy to take on that challenge as if it were a personal affront.
  • It’s like adding a razor-thin-keen-edge to your mentality and all the decisions you make leading up to the game; others may simply call it an adrenaline boost…
  • Caleb Porter, I’m sure, is up for that unwritten test…

#RCTID

Best, Chris

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