PWP Predictability Index vs MLS Results Week 16

While I didn’t venture any predictions for this past weekend in Major League Soccer I thought it would be fun to see how the overall Composite Possession with Purpose (CPWP) Index fared compared to the results in Week 16.

As a reminder here is the CPWP Predictability Index from Week 15:

CPWP Home and Away Predictability Index Week 15 MLS
CPWP Home and Away Predictability Index Week 15 MLS

Vancouver at home to Montreal; result (draw) – CPWP PI predicted a win to Vancouver.

New York at home to Toronto; result (draw) – CPWP PI predicted a win to New York.

Portland at home to Sporting KC; result (Sporting KC win) – CPWP PI predicted a win to Sporting. 

DC United at home to Seattle; result (Seattle win) – CPWP PI predicted a win to Seattle. 

New England at home to Philadelphia; result (Philadelphia win) – CPWP PI predicted a win to New England.

Colorado at home to Vancouver; result (Colorado win) – CPWP PI predicted a win to Colorado. 

Chivas at home to Real Salt Lake; result (Chivas win) – CPWP PI predicted a win to Real Salt Lake.

San Jose at home to LA Galaxy; result (Galaxy win) – CPWP PI predicted a win to LA Galaxy.

Columbus at home to FC Dallas; result (draw) – CPWP PI predicted a win to Columbus.

Montreal at home to Houston; result (Montreal win) – CPWP PI predicted a win to Montreal.

Excluding draws – which the CPWP PI does not predict – where there were winners and losers the CPWP PI was five out of six in indicating who might win versus lose.

So where New England lost to Philadelphia – what, if anything, did Philadelphia Union do that was different from their historical averages so far this year?

Here’s my article freshly pressed to try and offer some answers to that question…

In closing…

I’m not sure how well the CPWP PI will play out this year – I won’t offer predictions prior to games using it – I still think and feel more games (data) is needed.

But I will look back each week and see how the CPWP PI plays out and look to see what was different, in a team performance way, that led to a result that didn’t fit the picture.

Best, Chris

 

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