If you’ve been following my adventures in Major League Soccer you’ll know that last year the PWP Index did a pretty good job in showing how the team performances played out in comparison to the League Tables (without) including points scored in my calculations.
To be honest, with such a small sample point I really didn’t think the PWP Indices effort would stand up against the Tournament (knock-out based style) of the World Cup.
But after taking a look at all the games (and inputting the team performance from said games) my Indices seem to hold up pretty well – wonder when Pepsi or another company that begins with “P” will consider sponsoring my work? (just kidding – erhhh maybe not?).
Anyhow – here’s the lay of the land as it was tweeted earlier today:
NOTE: All games are entered – and the comparison of these games does include the extra games played as the competition has headed towards the finals.
In other words Germany, Argentina, Brazil and the Netherlands all have six games worth of data. In developing this I figured the more data points for a team the more likely their percentages would be watered down.
So for a team like Spain, who went out in the first round I figured they’d be pretty high up – well they are but the pedigree of the Netherlands, France, Colombia, Argentina, and Germany all put them past Spain EVEN with more games played!
If you’ve read my presentation at the World Conference on Science and Soccer as well as my Introduction into Possession with Purpose you’ll know my measurement methods and data source for this effort. I can’t thank MLS Soccer.com enough for the publicly available data that allows me to generate my Index formulas.
Perhaps Prozone or someone else might help me obtain the data I need for all the European Leagues, to include the Champions League?
So with the overall accuracy (pretty compelling it appears to me) I’ve put my Composite PWP Predictability Index to test for the final (ahead of time)…
Before offering that Index though here’s how the teams compared against each other in Attacking PWP and Defending PWP:
From an attacking standpoint Germany are top of the table with Colombia 2nd, France 3rd, and Argentina 4th.
And when witnessing that blowout yesterday is that really a surprise, perhaps somewhat, but even prior to that game Germany were 3rd best overall in Attacking PWP – behind only Argentina and Colombia.
So how about the Defending PWP Index?
Notice (below) that Brazil is 17th out of 32 teams; prior to that game against Germany, Brazil were 12th.
So while some favored Brazil – the overall team performance indicators did show that Brazil were behind Germany in both the APWP and DPWP prior to that game.
The same cannot be said for Argentina and Germany – those two split top honors as you can see below as Argentina heads this Index; while Germany is a close 2nd.
Also note, if you’re a supporter of the United States, they were much higher in this Index (21st best) than they were in the Attacking Index (5th worst).
It is worthy (and most probably realistic) that if the United States had taken a stronger attacking stance against Germany, and perhaps even Belgium, they might have been the team getting embarrassed and not Brazil!
Finally, here’s the CPWP Predictability Index:
A pretty close call; in this one Germany has the slight edge in Composite Predictability in comparison to Argentina.
Argentina is #1 in the DPWP Predictability Index (not pictured) and Germany is 4th best.
Germany is #1 in the APWP Predictability Index and Argentina slides all the way down to 16th best.
A distinct difference in Attacking and Defending Predictability based upon previous team performance while excluding goals scored…
The overall Composite PWP Predictability Index indicates Germany is better in attack and Argentina is better in defense; the Predictability Indices indicate the same outputs.
For me, and my PWP calculations this should make for a brilliant final this weekend!
No personal prognostications from me – my objective team performance indicators point one way in attack and one way in defense; usually in games like these the better defensive teams win…