UEFA Champions League – Bundesliga Throws down the Guantlet

FC Bayern Munchen and Borussia Dortmund take a big leap in working towards the knockout stages as each sit on six points, along with Real Madrid.

Others falling in line for a push into the knockout stages include Roma, Chelsea, Monaco, Paris Saint Germain (stunner that was), Zenit St. Petersburg and FC Porto.

In seeing those results here’s how the Possession with Purpose Strategic Composite Index (CPWP) shows:

CPWP Strategic Index Group Stages Through Game 2

Of the teams with six points – all three fall within the top five of the Index,  For those on four points, each, only Paris Saint Germain falls in the negative end of the Index.

Clearly the statistical impact of playing Barcelona is painful – and the orange star above Nicosia also highlights how far down the Index they are after that 6-1 thumping in Game 1.  Yet now they’ve won their second game and sit on three points…

From a statistical standpoint the CPWP Index, correlation to average points earned, (R2) is .69 – very reasonable given only two games worth of data.

Oddly enough; and this doesn’t happen very much – the DPWP Index R2 (-.60) was slightly stronger than Goals Against (-.53); normally it’s about 5 one-hundreth’s of a point lower.

The Goal Differential R2 is .76; still the single best indicator that reflects results but doesn’t tell you anything about the internal activities of the game like the PWP Family of Indices.

Moving on – Defending PWP first:

DPWP Strategic Index Group Stages Through Game 2Like the other DPWP Indices for the other leagues I analyze – I’ve adjusted the Y axis to begin at 1.5, as opposed to 0, in order to magnify the differences between those teams that don’t perform well versus those teams that do.

Note both Borussia Dortmund and FC Bayern Munchen are 1 -2 in the DPWP Index – while Real Madrid are 11th best – is that an early indicator that Real’s attack (see below) isn’t going to get them past a much tighter defensive network offered by the two German clubs?

As for other observations – I’d say it’s pretty clear that Benfica, Ludogorets, and CSKA Moscow are toast – all three are 7th worst or worse in team defending… nevermind they all sit on nil-pwa.

Moving on to the APWP Index, with some additional diagrams to sweeten the observations:

APWP Strategic Index Group Stages Through Game 2

As noted above, Real Madrid are much better in team performance for attacking versus defending – for the most part teams that defend better advance further in competitions like these.  I’d imagine Real will need to play a whole lot tighter if they are to succeed.

And what about Barcelona?

Wow – it’s unlikely they don’t advance but it should be an electrifying wake up call that possession for the sake of possession is not going to cut it in the Champions League this year.

This league is a far cry more skilled than La Liga – a reminder on how Barcelona looks in overall CPWP for La Liga is below…  you’re not in Kansas anymore Toto!

CPWP Strategic Index Week 9 La Liga

Okay – now a few extra diagrams for your consideration:

APWP Strategic Index Final Third Passes Greater Than 132 Through Game 2

First off – here’s what the APWP looks like when you filter the teams based upon the volume of passes attempted in the Opponent’s Final Third; in this diagram here’s the teams who have exceeded (the average) of 132 passes attempted.

Those teams with red bars are those that sit on zero or one point; those with yellow bars are teams sitting on two or three points, while those with green bars have four or six points.

Of course it’s unlikely that Barcelona doesn’t advance – but the same can’t be said for Arsenal.

In this diagram Arsenal are 2nd best in APWP – when looking at the diagram for Final Third passes attempted below 132 note where Arsenal is -(last in APWP).

Clearly they perform much better when they attempt to penetrate more – that style of play where more is more in the EPL seems to translate to Arsenal doing better here too.

Whether that holds true for all teams in the Group stages is unclear – I’m sure we’ll see soon enough.

Before moving on; note that there are seven teams in this diagram who exceed 132 passes in at least one game – while four teams sit on one or zero points.

That’s not the case here where the APWP Index is filtered based upon teams/games where passes attempted in the Final Third fall below the average:

APWP Strategic Index Final Third Passes Less Than 132 Through Game 2

Only four teams here have four or six points – actually all four of them sit on four points.

I don’t know (yet) if this is more or less impacted by how the opponent dictates play – nor do I know if this is more or less impacted by how the attacking team dictates play…  More to follow on that one.

Note the high volume of teams with red bars in the lower end of APWP when pass attempts in the Final Third fall below 132 – the lone wolf at the bottom end is Arsenal – kind of reaffirming the need for them to sustain a high passing volume game in order to maximize their team attacking talents.

In Closing:

All for now – only two games in and detailed statistical analysis really isn’t worthy at this time – for the most part it is what it is…

The teams not best suited to do well in this competition are beginning to appear – Game three begins 21 October – should be exciting and the special match-ups I see might not be yours.

Here’s the ones that intrigue me given the state of affairs today:

  • Roma at home to FC Bayern Munchen
  • Barcelolna at home to Ajax
  • FC Schalke at home to Sporting Lisbon
  • BATE Borisov at home to Shaktar Donetsk
  • FC Porto at home to Athletic Club
  • Atletico de Madrid at home to Malmo FF
  • Liverpool at home to Real Madrid
  • Beyer Leverkusen at home to Zenit St Petersburg

Exactly – that’s almost all the games – well you’re right 😉

Looking forward to that round and any upsets that might occur like Paris Saint Germain beating Barcelona 3-2.

Best, Chris

COPYRIGHT, All Rights Reserved.  PWP – Trademark

Follow on @chrisgluckpwp

 

Advertisements

Comments are closed.

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑

%d bloggers like this: