UEFA Champions League – Some great games coming!!!

The greatest professional team soccer competition continues…

But before digging into the Possession with Purpose Family of Indices some general news for consideration.

As the PWP Indices have shown such a strong correlation/relationship to the league tables without using points earned, in ALL competitions measured, I want to try a create a quantifiable way to measure “luck”.   More to follow…

Anyhow, here’s my updated Strategic Composite PWP Index after the Group Stages are completed:

CPWP Strategic Index Group Stages CompletedA few explanations to better understand the diagram – I have paired up the teams (color coordinated them) to show the match-ups for the knock-out stages.

This way others can get an idea of how their team CPWP, APWP, and DPWP Indices compare.

I won’t go so far as to say that the team expected to win has their color first but I would offer it may give you an inkling of who might be favored to advance.

Finally, the red bars represent those teams that did not move on to the knock-out stages.

The knock-out stage pairings:

Barcelona play Manchester City.

FC Porto play FC Basel.

FC Bayern Munchen play Shakter Donetsk.

Real Madrid play FC Schalke.

Chelsea play Paris Saint Germain.

Borussia Dortmund play Juventus.

Atletico Madrid play Bayer Leverkusen.

Monaco play Arsenal.

So here is how the teams compare in the Strategic Attacking Index:

APWP Strategic Index Group Stages Completed

A few observations…

I’m a firm believer that Defense wins Championships – but I’m also not willing to ignore how effective team attacking performance is in relationship to team defending.

With Barcelona, Bayern, Porto, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Real Madrid being slightly head-and-shoulders above the rest, in attack, it’s likely those teams will put on a great performance.

All told I’d offer those teams will work towards a possession based attack – especially seeing their opponents.  I’d also offer up that Juventus is likely to work towards that style as well.

Teams like Schalke, Dortmund, Donetsk, Leverkusen, Man City, and PSG can show willingness to possess the ball but I think they will cede somewhat more this stage than in the Group Stages.

Teams like Atletico Madrid, FC Basel, and Monaco are )highly) likely to continue to cede possession and play for a swift counter-attacking (almost direct attacking) style of soccer.

Now for the Strategic Defending PWP Index:

DPWP Strategic Index Group Stages Completed

FC Porto have been best, with Bayern, Monaco, Dortmund, Real Madrid, and Barcelona not far behind…

If there is an anticipated blow-out I’d offer Real Madrid is the team most likely to win big – with Porto next up against Basel and Atletico Madrid handling Bayer pretty easily.

As for the others – way too close to call in my opinion – and I’d imagine a huge audience on telly for the Man City/Barcelona match-up – and you can be sure I’ll be watching The Arsenal take on Monaco!

In Closing:

As I noted going into this competition – all these teams are good – what follows as pucker time nears – is the separation of good from great…

If you want a taste on my approach in measuring luck – consider this – Athletic Club had just seven points earned yet they were 7th best in team defending performance and 13th best in the overall Composite Index performance…  if any team was unlucky, in the Group Stages, it was Athletic Club.

On the flip side – if any team was lucky, in the Group Stages, it was FC Basel (who also had just seven points earned) – they were 16th best in team defending performance, 22nd best in team attacking performance, and 20th best in overall Composite Index performance.

Best, Chris

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You can follow me on twitter @chrisgluckpwp

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