It’s been a bit since I last offered anything on Europe – sorry – just a whole lot going on to include putting together an Academic Paper, or five, on Possession with Purpose.
Since it’s been awhile here’s the primary Composite Index for all four areas covered – I’ll try to offer some more insight into the specific competitions a bit later – for now I appreciate your patience and hope this scratches the itch for a wee bit.
Oh – and a surprise at the end about Total Shot Ratio…
Does anyone really think anybody is going to beat out FC Bayern Munich? Probably not – but the other top three in the League Table are also the other top three here – the leader here appears to be Wolfsburg – and if a betting man that one seems a worthy gamble on them finishing second…
English Premier League:
I wouldn’t say it’s a runaway yet – still some games to be played but the real battle seems to be who finishes fifth – the bridesmaid as some say? As for Everton – well………. I’d be very surprised to see Martinez back next year – how can a team so dominant in possession completely lack the ability to finish? It’s called possession with no purpose – and it may not just be all about their strikers….
UEFA Champions League:
Was anyone not surprised with Monaco defeating Arsenal? In considering how things are developing it probably should have been foreseen a bit better…
I’ll try to offer up the Predictability Indices later this week in preparation for the Weekend.
By the way, when putting together the Academic Paper on PWP I have had to create two new Total Shot Ratio indicators…
As things have stood so far TSR has merely been an indicator viewed with attacking team data only and it’s never been flipped to see how the opponent behaves in TSR with respect to the other team.
Well I’ve fixed that, if you will.
Now like Attacking PWP, Defending PWP, and the Composite PWP I’ve taken TSR – renamed it to Attacking TSR (ATSR), and created Defending TSR (DTSR /// what the Opponent’s combined ATSR’s are against you), and CTSR – the difference between ATSR and DTSR…
I’ll be offering up more about that in my upcoming paper – you should know now that CTSR has a higher correlation (R^2) to Points Earned in the League Table than the old TSR…
In case you don’t know what TSR is – here’s an explanation pulled (DIRECTLY) from Statsbomb:
“TSR – Total Shots Ratio
A ratio to explain how teams fare against their average competition in the shots battle. Ex: If Manchester City has 20 shots in the match and Newcastle have 10, City’s TSR for that match is .67, Newcastle’s is .33.
James Grayson has written about this frequently on his website here. We care about TSR for teams because it has a reasonably strong correlation to points and goal difference.
In hockey, this is called Corsi.”
So What I’ve done is taken the same approach as what I did when creating Possession with Purpose – I’ve also created a Defending TSR (how the Opponent does against you) – so you have your teams Attacking TSR but also the Opponents Attacking TSR against you – called Defending TSR.
Composite TSR is created by subtracting DTSR from ATSR… note that CTSR is higher than ATSR with one exception – in other words the difference between the two TSR’s gives you a better picture and better correlation to points earned in the League Table than just plain TSR…
All told though – CTSR does not exceed the R^2 of CPWP – again with but one exception and that exception varies from week to week…
And TSR gives you no objective evidence on team attacking and defending behavior leading up to shots taken or goals scored… this is not to be critical of TSR – it simply points out the technical weakness in the ratio compared to PWP.
Here’s a snippet of what I mean:
CPWP to Pts Earned APWP to Pts Earned DPWP to Pts Earned ATSR to Pts Earned DTSR to Pts Earned CTSR to Pts Earned
0.85 0.79 -0.68
0.87 0.8 -0.76 0.64 -0.4
0.92 0.9 -0.85 0.86 -0.35
0.92 0.83 -0.81 0.53 -0.41
La Liga 0.91 0.88 -0.88 0.88 -0.77
The number in bold is the one with the highest R Squared to Points Earned – at least this week… and the numbers are those R Squared with respect to the League Table – not indicative of what the CTSR is for each team on a game to game basis – I will publish those a bit later this week… hope that clears up any confusion and appreciate your patience.
As of the 12th of March I have published that additional article speaking to TSR and the recommended changes to the overall effort… it’s here: Modernizing TSR
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