Possession with Purpose Total Soccer Index

With betting on sports games legal in the United States I will no longer publish details behind how my Total Soccer Index was created.

I will, however, from time to time keep you updated on the correlation of my Indices relative to points earned in the league table.

Here’s the latest for your consideration:

 

What you are seeing:

  • Sum of Points – as of 22 May 2018
  • Sum of Goal Differential – as of 22 May 2018.
    • Up until the beginning of this year this was the single most accurate statistic to use in measuring real difference in team performance exclusive of points earned in the league table.
  • Sum of Goals Scored – as of 22 May 2018.
    • Up until the beginning of this year this was the second most used team statistic to measure the real difference in team performance exclusive of points earned.
    • The widely used Expected Goals calculation was developed to heighten the awareness and use of this statistic.
    • Up until the creation of the Total Soccer Index in 2014 it was the second most accurate statistic to use in measuring real difference in team performance exclusive of points earned in the league table.
  • Sum of Shots Taken – as of 22 May 2018.
    • Up until the beginning of this year this was the third most used team statistic to measure real difference in team performance exclusive of points earned.
    • The widely used Total Shots Ratio was developed to heighten the awareness and use of this statistic.
    • Up until the creation of the Total Soccer Index in 2014 it was the third most accurate statistic to use in measuring real difference in team performance exclusive of points earned in the league table.
  • Sum of Total Soccer Index – as of 22 May 2018.
    • When first created in 2014 this team index supplanted Goals Scored as the second most accurate team statistic to differentiate team performance in EVERY league and competition measured (World Cup, UEFA Champions League, EPL, BL. LL, and MLS).
    • At the beginning of this year, with an improved and updated algorithm the Total Soccer Index has surpassed Goal Differential as the single most accurate team performance soccer statistic across the professional analytical world.
    • It’s so accurate FIFA could adopt it as the measurement tool to use in seeding teams across the world.
    • Said differently – this team statistic has supplanted and devalued the value of Total Shots Ratio as well as Expected Goals.
  • Sum of the Predictability Total Soccer Index.
    • Unlike Expected Goals and other predictability models the PTSI does not use goals scored in the past to predict goals scored in the future.
    • PTSI uses the ‘build-up’ of relevant team statistics that lead to a goal scored as the baseline for predicting future goals scored (points earned).
    • As far as I know there is no other publicly or privately created index that can do this with a higher correlation to points earned.
  • The row of numbers on the bottom represent the correlation to points earned for each of these team statistics.

As noted in previous articles – I am hopeful, someday, someone will pay me to use this as part of a corporate sponsorship package to help enlighten the public on the importance of all relevant team statistics that lead to points earned not just goals scored or shots taken.

If you wish to have more access to my data you’ll need to speak with me off line.

Thanks in advance for your patience.

Best, Chris

 

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