My thanks to everyone who has supported my web site the last four years!
It’s been a learning experience for me and, I hope, for you too.
As the new year starts I’ve got at least five new articles planned; here’s a quick synopsis on what to expect:
- Following up on Coaching Youth Soccer Part I and Coaching Youth Soccer Part II, I’ll be offering Coaching Youth Soccer Part III – digging into which team statistics to use, why, when, and how to use them. For those who don’t know me these three articles highlight my coaching philosophy into one three word catchphrase “muscle memory mentality“.
- Two new individual soccer statistics: This (may?) be controversial – My intent is to submit two new, professional level, individual, soccer statistics that could transform the player market value system.
Said differently; are private statistics companies, like Prozone Sports, OPTA, and InStat (along with player agents) manipulating the player market value system by ignoring what might be the most logical, intuitive, individual soccer statistics ever?
- Expected Points – An updated version of my previously created Expected Wins series of articles. A follow on to what was offered at the World Conference on Science & Soccer 2017, Rennes, France.
- Expected Goals – A new way to calculate this over-hyped soccer statistic that brings it a bit closer to reality.
- World Cup 2018 Total Soccer Index; to include predicting the winners after round one is complete.
For now, in case you missed one or two, here’s my rundown on the top five articles in each of the last four years.
- World Conference on Science & Soccer 2014 – a power point presentation of what I offered as a guest speaker at this prestigious event. #2 All Time.
- Is European Football Really Higher Quality than Major League Soccer – a look at possession with purpose across Europe as compared to MLS. #5 All Time.
- On Fire – or Can’t Hold a Candle – Are Chicago Fire Burning at Both Ends – a look at Chicago Fire in 2014 and their woes in not winning.
- Possession with Purpose Revised Introduction – my second update to PWP; the most accurate, publicly generated soccer index. #1 All Time.
- Major League Soccer – Week 25 – Portland Finally Show Up
- Possession with Purpose Revised Introduction – two years running in the top five.
- Busting the Myth of Moneyball in Soccer Statistics – my take on the flawed reasoning that individual statistics actually add great value in evaluating player effectiveness. #6 All Time.
- Redefining and Modernizing total Shots Ratio – Debunking TSR – note this statistic has now been shoved to the side. #8 All Time.
- World Conference on Science & Soccer 2014 – two years running in the top five.
- Is European Football Really Higher Quality than Major League Soccer – two years running in the top five.
- US Soccer – Improving College Soccer in the United States – peeling back issues with College Soccer – a topic with a very high visibility rate now. #4 All Time.
- Moneyball 2 – Soccer Statistics Taking it to the Next Level – thoughts and ideas about the next iteration of individual soccer statistics. #7 All Time.
- Training Soccer in America – God Smackingly Obvious Or is It – my first article highlighting my frustrations with US Soccer Youth Development – a topic with a very high visibility rate now.
- Busting the Myth of Moneyball in Soccer Statistics – two years running in the top five.
- Possession with Purpose Revised Introduction – three years running in the top five.
- Porter Pulls out of Portland – Caleb Porter resigns. #3 All Time.
- Updated Possession with Purpose – four years running. Update includes a revision to my Total Soccer Index. Two new algorithmic revisions have the correlation (r) to points earned in the league table exceeding ‘goal differential’; the benchmark statistic of modern day soccer.
- Getting Hot in Portland – On a poor run, Portland Timbers head coach, Caleb Porter publicly humiliates some of his players during post game press conferences – the first article in America projecting he may be out by the end of the season.
- Portland Timbers hire Gio Savarese – Caleb Porter’s replacement; no frills from an MLS shill here – let’s wait till the end of year 1 before drawing any conclusions or over-hyping what he offers.
- It’s not just US Soccer that Needs to Wipe the Slate Clean – The first article offered in the US Soccer media environment that publicly slams mainstream soccer media for inadequate journalism – a topic with a very high visibility rate now.
- I called for Jurgen Klinsmann to be sacked after WC 2014 because his tactics and in-game adjustments weren’t up to snuff. Three years later the rest of the american mainstream soccer media world agreed and Klinsmann was sacked.
- I called for Sunil Gulati to be ‘ousted’ after WC 2014 because his leadership in helping youth development and head coach selection weren’t up to snuff. Three years later the rest of the american mainstream soccer media world agreed and Gulati is out.
- In hindsight – I wonder where we’d be in youth soccer development if we’d have made those decisions three years ago?
- No, I do not favor Caleb Porter as the next US Men’s National Team head coach. I like Caleb, he’s a stand-up guy and always took time to share and listen. That said, in my opinion, he’s not (consistently) good enough at reading in game situations and making tactical adjustments that lead to better performances; the exact same issue I had with Jurgen Klinsmann. .
- I’m hopeful either Eric Wynalda or Steve Gans are elected as the next United States Soccer Federation President; electing Kathy Carter is a NO-GO in my view as there’s perceived ‘collusion’ between MLS and SUM. As a retired Air-Force veteran perception is reality until proven otherwise – some may disagree?
I wish you all the best for the new year.
The all star game happens this week so what better time to review where teams compare in the Total Soccer Index.
After every team had played 17 games; (halfway through the season).
Top team with 17 games in, points wise, was not Atlanta it was FC Dallas; Red Bulls of New York showed most consistency in quality across the pitch.
- With Jesse Marsch departing it will be interesting to see if Red Bulls can continue that run of quality – if they do they could be a great bet to win it all if the pundits stick with Atlanta given their edge in points earned.
- I also feel vindicated, as a pundit, as I recognized Jesse Marsch as the best ‘domestic’ MLS Head Coach option for the US Men’s National Team last year; read it here:.
- Of additional interest; my second choice to coach the US Men’s National Team would be Oscar Pareja… not Gregg Berhalter.
Oscar Pareja, like Jesse Marsch, shows greater consistency of purpose in earning points when his team plays with OR without the ball.
Worst were Orlando, Colorado, and Montreal… more to follow on just how bad Orlando and Colorado are; even compared to Chivas USA!
Here’s how the teams stack up (in one big conference) for total games played. The Eastern Conference rules the roost.
Best and worst playing at home; the Eastern Conference rules the roost:
Best and worst playing away from home; only LA Galaxy,, of the Western Conference, squeeze into the top 3:
The elite teams at home are pretty much the elite teams on the road; some of the worst teams on the road are also in the bottom third at home.
When you’re good, you’re good, when you’re bad you’re bad.
I don’t live in Orlando and I don’t follow their team, but it seems to me there’s some significant issues with that club at ALL levels.
- In any other league in any other country they’d be relegated.
- Instead they’ll get extra money to make them ‘appear’ to be more competitive.
- When you’ve got a bad front office and ownership group you’ll consistently have a bad team.
To give you an idea what I mean; here’s the Total Soccer Index for every team that’s played in MLS since 2014 (all games included in this analysis).
Only one team (not Chivas USA) has shown worse overall (combined) team performance (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and now 2018) than Orlando…. San Jose!
As much as folks might blast Orlando City ownership there should be equal, if not more, attention sent the way of Colorado and San Jose, as well as Chicago (maybe?).
- Relegation would have seen these teams probably sink to division 3 if US Soccer ran a proper organization.
- Ironic that Chivas USA has actually shown better in team performance than Montreal, Chicago, Colorado, Orlando, and San Jose…
- When is the last time you heard soccer pundits calling out those organizations like they did Chivas USA?
- If ever an organization needed to hire a forward-thinking, team-performance statistical analyst it’s Orlando, San Jose, Colorado, or Chicago. Give me a call. 🙂
While Atlanta have shown well their first two season, the two most consistent teams (across 5 years’ measurement) are Red Bulls and FC Dallas.
- Just another piece of team performance data for US Soccer to analyze that confirms both Jesse Marsch and Oscar Pareja are far more consistent in having their teams ‘earn points’, while also showing consistent quality across the entire pitch, than Gregg Berhalter.
- Oooh, that’s likely to be a snarky comment for some and a front loaded criticism of US Soccer if they decide to hire Gregg. Note this isn’t me saying he’s not a good coach – he is – but is he a better selection than Pareja or some other guy who coaches domestic soccer in Europe?
Major League Soccer nears the All Star break and most teams have reached the mid-point in games played.
From top to bottom here’s the latest on MLS team performance in possession, passing accuracy, penetration, creation, precision, and finishing.
Being the best in just one of those categories does not mean you are the best in total team performance.
Click here: Major League Soccer PWP Total Soccer Index
I’m sure some think my promoting the accuracy and value of this Index is arrogance – it’s not arrogance when you’re right – it’s confidence.
I’m sure there’s many ways to determine what Head Coach might best lead the US Men’s National Team out of darkness…
I’ve narrowed my scope of who might fit best by limiting the selection pool to those who currently lead a team in Major League Soccer. This obviously includes a broad band of candidates – you need to start somewhere.
In today’s environment, world class national and domestic teams are great at “controlling the ball” AND/OR great at “controlling the opponent when they don’t have the ball”.
I’ve taken that statement and converted it into measuring four categories of possession:
- Points per game a Head Coach averages where their team has equaled or exceeded 55% possession,
- Points per game a Head Coach averages where their team has possession greater than or equal to 50% possession but less than 55% possession,
- Points per game a Head Coach averages where their team has possession greater than or equal to 45% possession but less than 50% possession, and
- Points per game a Head Coach averages where their team has less than 45% possession.
My intent is to try and quantify/qualify three basic styles of play:
- Possession-based with controlled possession starting from the back,
- A mixture of controlled possession and controlled counter/direct -attacking, or
- A team relying solely on “controlling the opponent when they don’t have the ball” and offering counter/direct attacking as a method of penetration.
My relationships between the four measured categories of possession and three styles of play are:
- #1 with #1,
- #2 & #3 with #2, and
- # 4 with #3.
Its’ not perfect, but then again, soccer isn’t perfect either.
Note: Prozone has identified ~ 7 styles of play – I try to keep things simple.
I’ve made a list of five Head Coaches for consideration:
- Gregg Berhalter,
- Oscar Pareja,
- Caleb Porter,
- Peter Vermes, and
- Jesse Marsch
Why didn’t I include Jason Kreis?
He’s been relieved of coaching duties twice and failed to make the playoffs with Orlando City. Something, somewhere isn’t working… nothing personal.
Here’s their initial PPG by each category from 2014 to 2017 (excluding the final two games):
The cells highlighted in green show which Head Coach had the highest PPG (per year) in the four categories listed.
It’s pretty clear those five coaches having varying strengths in earning points relative to the four categories of possession.
Here’s their average PPG over the last three years in an attempt to quantify/qualify their “consistency of purpose” – a phrase usually associated with Dr. Deming:
So how do their teams perform against conference opponents?
An attempt to measure how well each coach’s team performs against a “known quantity”; similar to the US Men’s National team playing “known” CONCACAF opponents…
Note the 2017 data excludes the last two games of this season.
Jesse Marsch shows best (“consistency of purpose”) in:
- Earning points per game in three of four possession categories over the last three years,
- The Total Soccer Index versus “known” opponents over the last three years,
- Goal differential versus “known” opponents over the last three years,
- Earning points versus “known” opponents over the last three years.
Who’s your choice?
You can follow me on twitter @CoachChrisGluck
I’m not on the bandwagon of blasting US Soccer, USSF, Sunil Gulati, the Coaching Staff, or the Players anymore – that’s old news for me; especially since the rest of our soccer media has finally caught up to what I was thinking after the US Men’s team performance in World Cup 2014.
Here’s my summary of issues back then that STILL REMAIN today:
- They lack on field leadership.
- They lack the ability to possess the ball with any sense of conviction.
- They lack the ability to penetrate with any sense of continuity in possession leading to that penetration.
- They are predictable.
- They lack “controlled aggression”.
- Their team passing statistics are horrible.
- They lack a pure #9, #8, #7, and #6 in the traditional sense of soccer.
- They lack ‘shut-down’ fullbacks.
- They lack center-backs who can not only possess the ball, but control space in and around their own 18 yard box with pace and fortitude.
- They have a great goalkeeper.
- Some of the players are really-really fast, many are slow or really slow.
- Some of the players have a great first touch, many don’t.
- Both Head Coaches have shown an inability to use the right tactics against opponents.
So am I personally surprised by the result?
No… and I don’t know why other guys who’ve played at that level are!
Anyway, since I’ve already lambasted US Soccer and Sunil Gulati, many times over three years, my target for today is mainstream soccer media.
Yes… in the last two days mainstream media has blitzed Sunil Gulati and US Soccer/USSF given the horrendous result against T&T. In a way, rightly so, but in a way…. very disappointing.
It’s disappointing because there’s nothing here you shouldn’t already know if mainstream news/TV media had done their job of informing/educating our country in HOW soccer is played and what statistics should be used to quantify or qualify results.
Hmmm… you sure about this Chris?
Yes… here’s why.
Throughout the course of US World Cup qualifications mainstream media has quantified and qualified good or bad performances of players and coaching decisions based on the use of “event-based” statistics.
Here’s some you may be familiar with:
Expected Goals, Expected Passes; numbers of Clearances, Tackles, Recoveries, Crosses, Missed Chances, Key Passes, Goals Scored, Shots Taken, Save Percentage, Blocked Shots; or Composite indices like the Audi Player Index or Castrol Index plus countless other ones too many or unworthy to name.
This information is well-intentioned but if you KNOW and understand HOW soccer is played NONE of these statistics have value UNLESS the author or TV pundit qualifies the data based upon how the opponent influenced those outcomes.
So… in EVERY instance (EVERY article and EVERY TV broadcast) mainstream media uses these event-based soccer statistics they facilitate ignorance of the mainstream soccer audience.
In other words, in modern terminology all that info they use is “fake news”…
But wait, there’s more… what is an article (in today’s environment) without including at least one tweet.
Last week the most popular @MLSSoccer.com writer, Matthew Doyle, tweeted about Paul Arriola, a good player who brings “energy” but world-class…. no. My response, however harsh, is included.
Matthew Doyle, from MLS Soccer, offers this quote in a recent article.
“Second is that, at the end of the video from last night, you can see me pleading for you (yes you, the one reading this) to get involved, specifically as a coach or a referee.”
I am involved. I am a coach, I have coaching qualifications both here and from the United Kingdom.
I’m also a soccer analyst who’s been published in London and my statistical analysis has been presented at both the 2014 and 2017 World Conference on Science and Soccer.
So I have standing in what I offer as criticism to you and mainstream soccer media.
I won’t prejudge MLS but I will offer some suggestions for MLSSoccer.com given my standing:
- Stop the incessant use of individually tracked event-based statistics without qualifying what they mean relative to how the opponent played…
- Stop advocating the Audi Player Index…
- Stop advocating Expected Goals…
- Stop advocating an MLS Best XI that excludes fullbacks or offers up a 3-4-3 when roughly 86% of teams in Major League Soccer play with four defenders, not three…
- Stop advocating a Major League All Star starting squad that doesn’t account for ‘all’ the primary positions on the pitch, that means fullbacks, center-backs, wingers, central attacking and defending midfielders, forwards, and out-and-out strikers.
- Stop advocating that a throw-back player of the 1990’s actually fits into a modernized 2022 US Men’s National Team.
- Find writers/analyst who KNOW HOW soccer is played – not just guys who write articles that are offered simply as “click bait”!
- Enforce that all academies (and all affiliated soccer clubs to those academies and the parent organization) are no longer “pay-to-play” this includes health insurance and travel.
Bottom line at the bottom:
Mainstream media organizations MUST take responsibility and retrain or sack writers/analysts and stop sponsor-ships with people/organizations that advocate/use “statistical disinformation” (fake news).
A reminder of where the US Men’s National Team finished in the Total Soccer Index for World Cup 2014 and why I’m not surprised they didn’t qualify for WC 2018.
By the way; just because I didn’t write an article about sacking Sunil Gulati, or other things like “pay to play” doesn’t mean I disagree with great articles like this one by Neil Blackmon.
I don’t see a guy like Neil being “mainstream soccer media”…
You can follow me on twitter @CoachChrisGluck