Tagged: Champions League
Expected Wins Five – Europe
In my previous series on Expected Wins Four – probably more appropriately entitled “Expected Points” – I’d taken a look at how the general tendencies of four primary Leagues in Europe (England, Germany, Spain, as the UEFA Champions League) compare to Major League Soccer – Is European Football Really Higher Quality than Major League Soccer?
This time I’m focusing strictly on Europe and offering up how things stand in PWP with the season coming to a close soon. But before digging some things to share about PWP to date:
A reminder – PWP is about two things:
- The End State in that the final Index comes as close as possible to the League Table without using points earned in any of the calculations, and
- Recognizing that soccer is a game that is played in a free flowing environment – picture two amoeba fighting against each other in a confined space…. There is attempted control by the Head Coach that includes tons of preparation to set the stage for ‘an approach’ to earn three points – and then there is the game itself where there is but one time out (halftime) – no namby pamby huddles or official stoppages of play between possessions. Meaning these guys play a full-on, in your face (sometimes literally), non-stop, constantly thinking and reacting to the game that can literally see the ball go in any direction at any time… not purely random but close.
Given that, PWP attempts to tone down all that volatility and parse out general tendencies that fall within the bell curve of activities – it’s not perfect – but it’s bloody good… and yes – I have made a few mistakes along the way (if you don’t work you don’t make mistakes). The latest has been a technical mistake – the relationship of CPWP to the League Table is not an R Squared number (Coefficient of Determination) it is an R number (Correlation Coefficient).
For the stats followers that may be an issue… but even with the Modernized TSR (read here) the CTSR “R” is still generally lower (team to team) and certainly lower (table to table) than CPWP – meaning there still remains room for both statistical analytical approaches in a gmae that is played across the world…
Also, my thanks to some great research by Rob Lowe, a mate with the same passion for footy, who has asked to collaborate with me in the future. He has done some additional regression analysis on the data points of PWP with respect to goals scored and points earned. I should point out that his results show that not all six of the data points in the PWP equation independently-directly relate to goals scored or points earned. For me that is okay – and actually great news for a few reasons…
- Both of my two new statistics (Passes Completed in the Final Third per Passes Completed across the Entire Pitch – Step 3 of PWP) and (Shots Taken per Completed Pass within and into the Final Third – Step 5 of PWP) did statistically relate to Goals Scored and Points Earned (independently). Meaning those new statistics are relevant – both within the context of PWP and outside the context of PWP. It’s this statistical regression type information that should solidify these two new statistics in the world of soccer.
- For both Possession (Step 6 of PWP) and Passing Accuracy (Step 5 of PWP) – as you will see a bit later – those two derived data points were never supposed to directly (independently) relate to goals scored or points earned as a matter of course I have advocated for quite some time that they shouldn’t. PWP was built with the intention that the six derived data points only needed to relate to each other in a stair step relationship recognizing that in every game a team needs to possess the ball, move the ball, penetrate the opponent’s final third, take shots based upon that penetration, put them on goal, and score goals – all while preventing the opponent from doing the same thing.
- Another view on the outcome that Rob has noted – it’s unreasonable to analyze a game of soccer without taking those activities into account. Rob’s positive feedback was that both possession and passing accuracy act as a “smoothing agent” within the Index – I agree but with beginning to learn the nuance of writing an Academic Paper I would put it this way.
- Possession and Passing Accuracy stats have limitations when vewing overall regression analysis relative to goals scored and points earned – but those limitations actually give the overall analyst of soccer a much better understanding about the context of activities that occur when a team is performing better than another team.
- In addition, Passing Accuracy statistics provide a coach a great measurement tool for how well some players may develop and progress into higher levels of competition – to exclude data of this import really ignores some of the most fundamental training aspects a team needs to do in order to improve.
- Also, there is excessive volatility in the percentages associated with Shots on Goal versus Shots Taken and Goals Scored versus Shots on Goal – if I only look at those two things then evaluating a game is all about (pass-fail) – granted winning and losing is pass-fail. But to develop a “winning culture” a grading system perhaps more appropriate is A-B-C-D-F – in other words there are levels of success above and beyond pass-fail – especially when you are a team that isn’t at the very top of the league.
- By having Possession and Passing Accuracy in the equation you get a much larger (explanatory) picture on the culture of success – and as things appear to take shape, the Index itself, gives better clarity to that level of success for teams that are mid-table as opposed to bottom dwellers or top performers…
Now for the grist in Europe – first up – England:
Note that the first two diagrams (in each four diagram grouping) highlight where the highest quantity and highest quality occurs within each competition – after some growing pains (earlier Expected Wins measurements) all four competitions now see the teams that win having the highest averages, in all categories, for both quantity and quality… proving (for the most part) that more is better and more results in more…
All told the correlation, at this time, remains very strong – note that the “R” has replaced the “R2” in my third and fourth diagrams.
If I remove Possession and Passing Accuracy from the CPWP Index – the R value drops to .78 – statistically reinforcing that the Index, itself, better represents the standings in the League Table by including Possession and Passing Accuracy data. Proving yet, another way, that goals scored and shots taken simply do not provide adequate depth on what activities occur on a pitch relative to earning points in the League Table! And if you’ve read Moderning TSR this doesn’t mean ATSR/DTSR or CTSR doesn’t have value – it does…
As things stand today Chelsea take the League and since Man City, Man United, and Arsenal round out the top four (different orders) in both CPWP and CPWP-PI I’d offer it’s those four that advance to the UEFA Champions League next year. The bridesmaid looks to be a two horse race (Spurs supporters may argue that) between Liverpool and Southampton.
Note that Southampton edges Liverpool in CPWP but that Liverpool edges Southampton in CPWP-PI – meaning when excluding Goals Scored – Liverpool has better quality than Southampton – so for Liverpool it’s more about converting Shots on Goal to Goals Scored – while for Southampton it’s more about getting clean sheets and scoring at least one goal; at least in my view – others may see that differently?
In retracing the earlier discussion on the data within the six steps of PWP – as you can see in both the first and second Diagrams (for all competitions) the Exponential Curve (Diagram 1) and well as Power Curve (Diagram 2) the stair step relationship between the data – point to point – are incredibly high… Even more intriguing is how close those “R2” numbers are for both winning, drawing, and losing… really driving home the point, in my view, just how small the margin of error is between winning, drawing, and losing.
For goals scored (for or against) we really are talking about 5 or 6 standard deviations to the right of the bell curve…
Perhaps the most intriguing issue this year isn’t the FC Bayern story – it’s the lack of goal scoring in Borussia Dortmund – when viewing the CPWP Predictability Index clearly Dortmund is offering up all the necessary culture the team needs in order to succeed – with one exception – goal scoring…. wow!
Another surprise may be Wolfsburg I’d pick them, and Bayer Leverkusen to finish two-three in their League Table – both show pedigree in team performance both with and without considering goals scored…
Barcelona and Real Madrid are locked in for the top team battle – my edge goes to Barcelona. I’d offer more here but I’m simply not up on the La Liga as much as I’d like to be…
UEFA Champions League:
The top eight teams that advanced are identified above – given the general success of CPWP relative to the top eight I’d expect FC Bayern Munich, BArcelona, Real Madrid, and Juventus to advance to the semi-finals.
My first of at least 4-5 Academic Papers is soon to be published – my thanks to Terry Favero for helping me work through this new experience – his support, patience, and knowledge in navigating all the nuance associated with writing an Academic Paper has been superb!
All four European competitions show more gets you more – this was not the case for Major League Soccer last year:
When more gets you more in MLS then I sense MLS has reached the BIG TIME – until then I think it’s a great breeding ground for Head Coaches that simply can’t get a job with a soccer club that has huge pockets of money.
Put another way – and many may disagree… I think a Head Coach who really wants to challenge their intellectual grit against another Head Coach can have greater opportunity to do that in MLS than they can by Head Coaching most clubs in Europe.
Why? For at least one reason – a Head Coach in MLS really has to do more with less…
Errata – the first MLS slide indicates 654 events – the correct number is 646 events…
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Bundesliga – Winter Break is here…
No European team can match the league domination that Bayern Munich has shown this year in the Bundesliga. However, in spite of Die Bayern’s efforts to run away with the title, the German premier division is still awash with fascinating stories.
The race for the remaining Champions League spot could not be closer – five teams are separated by a mere two points. And no, that excludes Dortmund, who are floundering in the relegation zone.
To set the stage here’s the five teams vying for that third and final spot: Bayer Leverkusen; Augsburg, Monchengladbach, FC Schalke, and TSG Hoffenheim.
Here’s where they compare with each other in my Composite Possession with Purpose Index:
All five teams in the top half (positive side) of the CPWP Index. Meaning all five of those teams are, on a regular basis, outperforming their opponent’s in PWP attacking and defending.
From this it would seem pretty obvious that Bayern Munich also stood out way above all others in the CPWP Index.
In addition, it’s good to see the Index also shows a marked difference, in overall team performance, between Wolfsburg and the other five teams battling for the final UEFA Champions League spot.
Of all the leagues I evaluate, using my Possession with Purpose Family of Indices, this League usually shows the best overall correlation.
Meaning, for some, it may be far more predictable – in other words perhaps the Bundesliga is a great league to bet on game results?
If you do that sort of thing here’s what the CPWP Predictability Index looks like:
A reminder – the CPWP Predictability Index was developed after I had some great discussions with folks at the World Conference on Science and Soccer 2014.
Myself, Ben Knapper (Arsenal FC Head of Stats) and others at PROZONE sports all agreed that the Index ‘could?’ have value as a predictability model if Goals Scored/Against data was removed.
The teams with Green Bars are the five teams battling for the third and final UEFA Champions League spot – the Purple Bar, Borussia Dortmund, is highlighted simply because they ‘should’ be winning – given their talent – but they aren’t!
But… could this be a model to actually reinforce Borussia Dortmund still remain a team who can make UEFA Champions League next year even though they are 13 points behind Bayer Leverkusen? I wonder what the odds are on that?
If you missed my presentation at the WCSS of 2014 here’s a link – in the seven months of this blog it has been my most viewed/read article.
Here again the top two teams are tops in the Index.
For those thinking the best in attack is what drives success it appears FC Schalke and then Bayer Leverkusen are best situated to push forward – while Augsburg slides way back towards Borussia Dortmund.
In taking a look at FC Schalke versus Bayer Leverkusen what separates them in this Index seems pretty interesting.
- Schalke average more total passes by volume (452 to 399) but within the Opponent’s Defending Final Third Leverkusen average more passes (155 to 120).
- To go with that, Leverkusen averages more possession (52% to 50%) but lower overall passing accuracy both within and outside the Opponent’s Defending Final Third (68%/57% compared to Schalke at 76%/61%.
- Meaning Schalke offer more passes, accurately, prior to entering the Final Third while also offering fewer, more accurate passes, once they’ve penetrated.
Looked at from a Leverkusen viewpoint – Bayer actually possesses the ball more – but is less accurate in that possession. In addition they also look to penetrate far more frequently than Schalke.
When digging into the shots area – Schalke show more patience in taking fewer shots by volume and percentage but both teams end up with roughly the same volume of Shots on Goal and Goals Scored per Shots on Goal (36% for Leverkusen and 34% for Schalke).
- Put another way – each team shows different statistical trends in possession, accuracy, penetrating, creating, and taking shots but their overall results are the same.
- Reinforcing, at least in my view, there are a number of different systematic approaches that will get you to the same place.
Before moving on to Defending PWP I think there is value in taking a look at Augsburg. Earlier this week I did an article on Major League Soccer called “Getting More from Less“.
The intent was to see who did better last year, in MLS, in getting better results with lower team performance. My gut-check example to quantifying the results in MLS was West Ham and their Direct Attacking nature.
What I determined was a team who averaged fewer passes than the League Average (both within and outside the Opponent’s Defending Final Third) with less than 50% possession could be reasonably called a Direct Attacking Team.
In looking at Augsburg here’s their attacking data as it fits that mold.
Overall dead on average in Possession at 50%.
Passing Accuracy (entire pitch), 73% – less than the League Average of 74.25%.
Passing Accuracy within the Opponent’s Defending Final Third (56%) – less than the League Average of 57%.
In looking at volume – Total Average Passes for Augsburg was 413 – the League Average was 435
Total Passes within the Opponent’s Defending Final Third for Augsburg was 114 – the League Average 126.
So on the surface it would appear that Augsburg shows the tendency to play more Direct Attacking, as opposed to a Counter-Attacking ‘tactic’, within a Possession-based game.
For Augsburg – they’ve had eight games that have followed the mode of Direct Attacking – they’ve won five of those games. Pretty solid in getting more from less – but can they sustain that?
The West Ham review showed they have won 7 games out of 11 games where their team averages fell into the Direct Attacking mode.
It would seem Augsburg are almost as successful (percentage wise) in matching West Ham when it comes to winning games where their performance falls below League Average… (63.63% for West Ham versus 62.5% for Augsburg).
Augsburg, like West Ham, are pretty high up in the Defending PWP Index (Hammers are 6th best in the EPL DPWP Index versus Augsburg who are 4th best here).
So the value of a higher team performance in defending helps sustain success with the lower volumes offered up in attack.
Meaning the will of Augsburg rides more with a collaborative approach, in overall team play, than strictly an attack dominated performance.
Monchengladbach is next highest here, while TSG Hoffenheim doesn’t seem to shine in either Index.
I’d expect some long odds on TSG making that third and final UEFA Champions League spot…
So what separates Monchengladbach from TSG?
- Goals Against – for Monchemgladbach their GA is .94 – for TSG it’s 1.47 – is that down to Mochengladbach simply having a better Goalie?
- Maybe… their opponent’s actually average more Shots on Goal (5.35) compared to TSG, whose opponent’s average 4.5 Shots on Goal.
Opponents for both teams average total passes, both within and outside the Defending Final Third, greater than the League Average – so by and large most opponents are playing possession based attacking against these two sides.
Where it gets interesting is the volume of successful passes by their opponents after they’ve entered their Defending Final Third.
- In the case of TSG, the opponents average 20 fewer successful passes, with almost the same amount of shots taken and shots on goal.
- Meaning, to me, TSG are finding themselves out of position more often as the screws tighten – hence the greater Goals Against.
In other words one team may be playing more man-to-man while another team may be playing more zonal?
I’m not sure which – those with video or access to X,Y coordinates may know that better?
Anyhow – clearly the data points towards one team having a different defensive scheme that may also include Mochengladbach simply having a much better Goal Keeper.
Half the season remains and while Bayern is basically blowing the Bundesliga away there are others who are still making this league worthy to watch.
Will it be the West Ham of the Bundesliga (Augsburg)? Can Borussia Dortmund pull it back? How about the other challengers who appear more steady, like FC Schalke, Bayer Leverkusen, or Monchengladbach?
And does TSG Hoffenhein really have a chance as well? For some I bet UEFA Champions League is the goal for next year – but others might also be shooting for Europa too.
And this doesn’t even broach the topic about who gets relegated – Might that Borussia Dortmund ends up in that race instead? Wow…….
Jürgen Klopp would get clobbered if that happens!
More to follow…
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UEFA Champions League – Bundesliga Throws down the Guantlet
FC Bayern Munchen and Borussia Dortmund take a big leap in working towards the knockout stages as each sit on six points, along with Real Madrid.
Others falling in line for a push into the knockout stages include Roma, Chelsea, Monaco, Paris Saint Germain (stunner that was), Zenit St. Petersburg and FC Porto.
In seeing those results here’s how the Possession with Purpose Strategic Composite Index (CPWP) shows:
Of the teams with six points – all three fall within the top five of the Index, For those on four points, each, only Paris Saint Germain falls in the negative end of the Index.
Clearly the statistical impact of playing Barcelona is painful – and the orange star above Nicosia also highlights how far down the Index they are after that 6-1 thumping in Game 1. Yet now they’ve won their second game and sit on three points…
From a statistical standpoint the CPWP Index, correlation to average points earned, (R2) is .69 – very reasonable given only two games worth of data.
Oddly enough; and this doesn’t happen very much – the DPWP Index R2 (-.60) was slightly stronger than Goals Against (-.53); normally it’s about 5 one-hundreth’s of a point lower.
The Goal Differential R2 is .76; still the single best indicator that reflects results but doesn’t tell you anything about the internal activities of the game like the PWP Family of Indices.
Moving on – Defending PWP first:
Like the other DPWP Indices for the other leagues I analyze – I’ve adjusted the Y axis to begin at 1.5, as opposed to 0, in order to magnify the differences between those teams that don’t perform well versus those teams that do.
Note both Borussia Dortmund and FC Bayern Munchen are 1 -2 in the DPWP Index – while Real Madrid are 11th best – is that an early indicator that Real’s attack (see below) isn’t going to get them past a much tighter defensive network offered by the two German clubs?
As for other observations – I’d say it’s pretty clear that Benfica, Ludogorets, and CSKA Moscow are toast – all three are 7th worst or worse in team defending… nevermind they all sit on nil-pwa.
Moving on to the APWP Index, with some additional diagrams to sweeten the observations:
As noted above, Real Madrid are much better in team performance for attacking versus defending – for the most part teams that defend better advance further in competitions like these. I’d imagine Real will need to play a whole lot tighter if they are to succeed.
And what about Barcelona?
Wow – it’s unlikely they don’t advance but it should be an electrifying wake up call that possession for the sake of possession is not going to cut it in the Champions League this year.
This league is a far cry more skilled than La Liga – a reminder on how Barcelona looks in overall CPWP for La Liga is below… you’re not in Kansas anymore Toto!
Okay – now a few extra diagrams for your consideration:
First off – here’s what the APWP looks like when you filter the teams based upon the volume of passes attempted in the Opponent’s Final Third; in this diagram here’s the teams who have exceeded (the average) of 132 passes attempted.
Those teams with red bars are those that sit on zero or one point; those with yellow bars are teams sitting on two or three points, while those with green bars have four or six points.
Of course it’s unlikely that Barcelona doesn’t advance – but the same can’t be said for Arsenal.
In this diagram Arsenal are 2nd best in APWP – when looking at the diagram for Final Third passes attempted below 132 note where Arsenal is -(last in APWP).
Clearly they perform much better when they attempt to penetrate more – that style of play where more is more in the EPL seems to translate to Arsenal doing better here too.
Whether that holds true for all teams in the Group stages is unclear – I’m sure we’ll see soon enough.
Before moving on; note that there are seven teams in this diagram who exceed 132 passes in at least one game – while four teams sit on one or zero points.
That’s not the case here where the APWP Index is filtered based upon teams/games where passes attempted in the Final Third fall below the average:
Only four teams here have four or six points – actually all four of them sit on four points.
I don’t know (yet) if this is more or less impacted by how the opponent dictates play – nor do I know if this is more or less impacted by how the attacking team dictates play… More to follow on that one.
Note the high volume of teams with red bars in the lower end of APWP when pass attempts in the Final Third fall below 132 – the lone wolf at the bottom end is Arsenal – kind of reaffirming the need for them to sustain a high passing volume game in order to maximize their team attacking talents.
All for now – only two games in and detailed statistical analysis really isn’t worthy at this time – for the most part it is what it is…
The teams not best suited to do well in this competition are beginning to appear – Game three begins 21 October – should be exciting and the special match-ups I see might not be yours.
Here’s the ones that intrigue me given the state of affairs today:
- Roma at home to FC Bayern Munchen
- Barcelolna at home to Ajax
- FC Schalke at home to Sporting Lisbon
- BATE Borisov at home to Shaktar Donetsk
- FC Porto at home to Athletic Club
- Atletico de Madrid at home to Malmo FF
- Liverpool at home to Real Madrid
- Beyer Leverkusen at home to Zenit St Petersburg
Exactly – that’s almost all the games – well you’re right 😉
Looking forward to that round and any upsets that might occur like Paris Saint Germain beating Barcelona 3-2.
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UEFA Champions League – Let the games begin…
Well, it’s started – the World Cup of League Football for most; at least in my eyes that is.
Who’s going to come out on top and who’s not?
Of course these teams are the best of the best (so-to-speak) and that means I won’t be using words/phrases like sucks, bottom dweller, or some other derogatory term to describe loser.
In other words no comparisons to Chivas USA, Newcastle (sorry lads and I did see Alan Pardew is under fire already), Levante or some other team not starting/doing well in regular season competition.
On to the Family of Indices in Possession with Purpose – but before going there a few obligatory reminders, on things past, in a competition such as the Champions League.
In case you missed it I took my possession with purpose analytical approach to the World Cup this year and here’s a reminder on how things started and then how things ended…
As a refresh, the Composite PWP Strategic Index diagrams are provided below for that prestigious event: How it started…
And… how it ended:
Notice that the trends after Game 2 seem to be pretty consistent (in terms of what teams performed better and worse) all the way through to the final.
The overall R2 (correlation to average points scored) to the Final CPWP Index was .82; Goal Differential was .89. The DPWP Strategic Index R2 was -.81 and the APWP Strategic Index was .65.
The Goals Scored R2 to average points was .69 and the R2 for Goals Against was -.74.
To be sure I was a bit surprised on how well the Family of Indices played out.
I’m hopeful the relationship will be somewhat near the same for the UEFA Champions League competition.
So how do the CPWP, APWP, and DPWP Indices show after Game 1?
Well, it’s a bit earlier than the World Cup Indices but the intent here is to 1) let you know I’m tracking the Champions League this year, and 2) all the Index outputs will be made available for consideration.
CPWP Strategic Index Group Stages Game 1
Seems pretty clear that FC Porto would be where they are given the 6-0 romp over Bate Borisov.
It’s still very early days so we’ll leave it at that and just note that their were five draws.
Here’s the Attacking PWP Strategic Index offering up the first to worst team performances in Attack:
Perhaps a surprise in seeing Roma ahead of FC Porto? Why is that?
A couple of reasons and the last one, in my opinion, is the most telling one on who may proceed a bit further:
- Roma had 91.07% passing accuracy compared to FC Porto’s 86.65%
- Possession was basically equal (~67% each)
- Roma was 55% accurate in scoring goals based upon shots on goal; while FC Porto was 50% accurate.
- Roma had a 69.23% accuracy rating in having their Shots Taken end up on goal, as opposed to FC Porto (also very high) who was 60% accurate.
- Now for the final difference, and most telling in my view — FC Porto generated 23.53% Shots Taken per penetrating possession – while Roma generated just 11.40%.
Why do I have that one last, when it also shows that FC Porto exceeded Roma by over 10%?
The reason why gets back to patience, along with time and space…
Roma was patient. They statistically, give the appearance, that they waited for better opportunities to take shots (more time and space to shoot) and that reduced volume of shots, per penetration, ended up generating a 9.23% difference in goals scored.
This is type of pattern, that good teams continue to show in Possession with Purpose analysis, reinforces for me that the ‘unmeasured’ amount of time and space has as much, if not more value, than the location of the shot taken.
As a reminder – here’s three previous articles speaking to that in better detail…
- Sometimes what doesn’t happen on the pitch has more value than what does happen‘
- New statistics in soccer, Open Shots and Open Passes.
- Expected Wins
On to the Defending PWP Strategic Index and the teams performing best/worst in that area:
Juventus take the top spot – even ahead of the possession and passing mad Barcelona, the biggest difference really comes down to one team defending statistic:
With Juventus, Malmo FF completed only 36% of their passes within the Juventus Defending Final Third.
While APOEL Nicosia were able to complete 56% of their passes within the Barcelona Defending Final Third.
Perhaps this is down to how deep or how shallow the back four for each team lined up in the defending half?
However viewed it should be noted APOEL Nicosia had fewer passes attempted, in total (292) , than Barcelona had attempted in the Nicosia Final Third (303).
Wow… Not unlike the same run of play that Barcelona sees in La Liga. But is that indicative of a team that is going to win the Champions League?
It didn’t work last year… I guess we will see.
It’s only one game – and trends can never be seen with just one game.
They do, however, provide a starting point for a trend.
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Bundesliga – Bayer Leverkusen showing early
It’s still early days in the Bundesliga, but like the English Premier League, early starts do have value – and three points dropped now is no different than three points dropped two months from now.
So what’s the value of an Index after just two weeks? Well it does provide a reasonable place to begin tracking trends as each month passes by.
For now the early leader in overall team performance is Bayer Leverkusen, and while I’m not tracking the Champions League, yet, their early form in qualifying, and in the Bundesliga, should concern Bayern Munich.
So how do the teams look so far (excluding the league table)?
Not really enough information yet to separate the cream from the milk.
And sadly, since this is my first ever dig into the Bundesliga I have no recall about previous years; that’s probably a weakness as the season starts but I’m inclined to believe my lack of historical knowledge on the league may add some objective value on how things begin to play out later this year.
For now know that the Composite Possession with Purpose Index has an R2 of .57 to the League Table, compared to the CPWP Index in the EPL – which has an R2 of .79 and the CPWP Index for La Liga – which has an R2 of .65.
Finally, and perhaps more relative from a statistical standpoint the R2 for the Major League Soccer CPWP Index is .79
All told that’s pretty reasonable.
In looking at the Attacking PWP, so far, here’s the teams operating at peak performance in attack (left side) versus those who have an early season challenge:
With Bayer Leverkusen being top of the CPWP it’s no surprise they are near top here as well as Defending PWP.
What I’d like to point out is Hertha – here they are fourth best in overall APWP – yet they fifth worst in CPWP – it’s probably fair to say that if their defending team performance can improve they should actually do well in the league…??? Others who follow Hertha might know better.
Defending PWP Index:
As noted, Hertha are bottom of the league in team defending performance – also note Borussia Dortmund are far down this scale as well…
Before closing – in Major League Soccer a soundbite that seems to have more value than possession percentage is overall Passing Accuracy – that league averages 77.10% in Passing Accuracy, and the winning teams are those who most often exceed that average.
For comparison, here’s the early season numbers for the Bundesliga:
The average Passing Accuracy is 73.98% – I’m somewhat surprised by that – a major difference in this league is that there are five teams that exceed 80% in Passing Accuracy and only two teams in MLS that exceed 80%.
Of additional note – in MLS the high percent is 81.26% and the low percent is 72.92% – for the Bundesliga the high percent is 84.86% – while the low percent is 63.13%.
Without any other information I’d offer the level of competition, as a whole, is more equal in MLS than in the Bundesliga.
This should be an interesting year and I’m looking forward to the comparisons I’ll be able to offer between leagues separated by that big pond called the Atlantic.
In case you missed it here’s the latest on the English Premier League where Chelsea are showing early, as are Swansea City and Aston Villa.
If you’re not familiar with Possession with Purpose read here:
All for now, best, Chris
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