Having been away on business last week I was unable to publish last weeks predictability versus reality results; in catching up here’s how things went in Week 18 and Week 19 versus the Composite Possession with Purpose Predictability Index (CPWP PI); excluding the Chivas USA v DC United match later this evening.

To begin here’s the CPWP Predictability Index for teams at Home, followed by, the CPWP PI for teams playing Away for Week 18/19…

Before digging into the results versus predictability note the significant difference in team performance at Home versus Away.

Pretty compelling evidence to reinforce what most believe, the home team usually does better… but… some teams can and will perform very strong on the road.

In reviewing the results… 

If you want the game by game comparison for Week 18 & Week 19 it can be found at the end of this article.

For now know that the CPWP PI accurately reflected five of the eight wins (draws excluded) for Week 18.

In addition, the CPWP PI accurately reflected seven out of seven wins (draws excluded) for Week 19.

If keeping track (after four weeks of leveraging the CPWP PI) it has been accurate in predicting 20 of 27 games (excluding draws); that’s a 74% success rate.

In Closing…

In general, the home team has won 74 games at home; while the away team has won 47 games on the road – the home team average percentage chance of winning based purely on results is 62%.

It would appear that the use of the CPWP, as a predictability model, gives someone a 12% better chance of predicting the outcome of a game then by purely picking the home team to beat the away team…

Perhaps others have a different view?

Best, Chris

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Week 18:

San Jose, at home, lost to DC United 1 – 2.  San Jose, at home, has a .0368 CPWP PI while DC United, on the road, has a -.2174 – the CPWP PI was not accurate.

New York, at home, won against Columbus 4-1.  New York, at home, has a .1184 while Columbus, on the road, has a .1047 – the CPWP PI was accurate.

Toronto, at home, won against Houston 4-2.  Toronto, at home has a .0886 while Houston, on the road, is -.1706 – the CPWP PI was accurate.

Philadelphia, at home, drew with Colorado 3-3.  CPWP PI does not measure for draws.

Montreal, at home, lost to Sporting KC 1-2.  Montreal, at home, is -.0170 while Sporting KC, on the road, is .1112 – the CPWP PI was accurate.

New England, at home, lost to Chicago 0-1.  New England, at home, is .2516 while Chicago, on the road, is -.2241 – the CPWP PI was not accurate.

Vancouver, at home, lost to Chivas 1-3.  Vancouver, at home, is .1912 while Chivas, on the road, is -.1827 – the CPWP PI was not accurate.

LA Galaxy, at home, won against Real Salt Lake 1-0.  LA, at home, is .0476 while RSL, on the road, is -.1278 – the CPWP PI was accurate.

Seattle, at home, won against Portland 2-0.  Seattle, at home, is .2669 while Portland, on the road, is .0486 – the CPWP PI was accurate.

Week 19 (with the Chivas versus DC United game left to play):

Philadelphia, at home, defeated New York 3-1; Philadelphia, at home, is -.0107 while the New York, on the road, is -.0711 – the CPWP PI was accurate.

Columbus lost, at home, to Sporting KC 1-2;  Columbus, at home, is.0797 while the Sporting KC, on the road, is .1112 – the CPWP PI was accurate.

Toronto, at home, drew with Vancouver 1-1. (not measured).

LA, at home, beat New England 5-1; LA, at home, is .0476 while the New England, on the road is -.0565 – the CPWP PI was accurate.

Portland, at home, beat Colorado 2-1.; Portland, at home, is .0271 while Colorado, on the road, is -.0452 – the CPWP PI was accurate.

Sporting KC, at home, beat LA 2-1. Sporting, at home, is .3362 while LA, on the road, is .1393 – the CPWP PI was accurate.

New York at home, drew with San Jose 1-1. (not measured).

Columbus, at home, beat Montreal 2-1; Columbus, at home, is .0797 while Montreal, on the road, is -.0950 – the CPWP was accurate.

Chicago, at home, drew with Philadelphia 1-1. (not measured).

Dallas, at home, beat New England 2-0; Dallas, at home, is .0599 while New England, on the road, is -.0565 – the CPWP was accurate.

Houston, at home, drew with Toronto 2-2.  (not measured).

Real Salt Lake, at home, drew with Vancouver 1-1. (not measured).